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Furthermore the US civil legal system is such a huge mess. The whole jury and grand jury system and the smaller burden of proof required (compared to criminal trials) makes it so easy to manipulate companies into settlements. Anyone who has read "Circle of Greed: The Spectacular Rise and Fall of...

Some people will then complain about the ethics of such decisions, that's fine, probably some of them are not anything to be proud of. But I would raise this point, from a trading/investing perspective the ethics of such decisions is irrelevant. He is going to go what he is going to do and...

Trump described two situations where he followed the right play from a game theory point of view. He threated to increase the legal costs of the banker to show that following down his path was going to be lose-lose. The banker backed down and both sides won. He also sued in order to show that...

Neke's position sizing doesn't make any sense, yet he continues with it. Ed Seykota says everyone gets what they want out of the market, perhaps wild fluctuations is what Neke is looking for, deep down.

So I started listening to the Art of the Deal audiobook. Already in the first chapter he describes this "Sometimes it pays to be a little wild". There is also this passage It looks to me that a lot of Trump's personality characteristics/behaviors are there simply because he knows that they...

Lets say the first REIT in country started to trade in 1994, but you would like to estimate how much an investor would have earned in the decades before that. As inputs, you have data like house prices, inflation and interest rates. Is there a model or formula to do such estimate? it doesnt have...

If you think about it, the reason the US has been on the worse end of some negotiations is exactly because of the reason so many people are afraid of Trump. Risk aversion. They rather not antagonize China, they rather have some free trade deal than no deal, they rather not threaten Putin, etc...

Yes, foreign policy is also where he might try a lot of these negotiation tactics. Daring China on Taiwan is a start. Could this all get out of hand? It could but I doubt it, it wont get any worse than Nixon flying B12s loaded with nukes into the Soviet Union as a bluff.

On an unrelated note, I recently came back from vacation on Cape Town, South Africa. The country is great and I found real estate pretty cheap there. I have no idea if this is true but it appears to me that english speaking countries are having pretty big bull markets in real estate globally...

They might even label China a currency manipulator right from the start. This is not a Great Moderation president, expect volatility. This is neopolitics (as least in the executive in the US). Its a new way to do things

I quoted Wilbur Ross this morning but his quote goes longer than that. He roughly said "People talk about tariffs as a first thing. Tariffs are the last thing. ITS PART OF THE NEGOTIATION" That and Trump protectionist speech yesterday is what prompted me to realize he aint backing down after...

Except China of course, they are also big, they are the ones who could fight Trump a bit and even call his bluff. But in a game of Chicken I think Trump would win

For the US to "Cubanize" a country is no big deal. Makes little to no difference to the US economy. For that economy, its the end, the politician running it will face a recession, will lose reelection and will be remebered as the idiot who fought Trump, lost and ignored the advice of all his...

Question now is, who wants to be Cuba? Nobody, so they will bend over and take it again!

The FATCA thing was interesting because the benefits accrued 100% to the US (all the extra tax revenue from increased tax compliance/fines/penalties) but other countries were stuck with the costs for complying with the legislation. The costs were huge, yet no one wanted to be Iran and...

Could Brazil respond by going protectionist and going in a trade war? Very unlikely, all economists agree that free trade is good. This wasnt the case in past trade wars. At this point its all about the negotiation around that free trade. US is too big and powerful, they can bully others into...

I cant help but to wonder if the Trump trade tactic wont be particularly good for Brazil. Brazil is one of the most protectionists countries around. Most things are tariffed around 60-80%. There are some exemptions for special items (like capital goods) but importing is quite expensive. We got...

yup. best thing he can do is to put a tariff his first day in office. markets will implode and people will freak out. he gets leverage for 4 years and never has to put a tariff again. effectively, he would throw the steering wheel out the window

I think a lot of people are still in the point where they are mad that someone with vastly different values than them was elected. So they wont be able to see things clearly. The amount of wealth transfered over the next few years will be high imo, a lot of market movement and policies will be...

I find a lot of these political debates hilarious, both sides are EXTREMLY good at catching the other side being biased, partial, being intelectually dishonest, etc. If you take the best points from Rachel Maddow or Rush Limbaugh, anyone with common sense would have to accept that they are right...