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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Brazil Senate President kept on his post by a 6-3 vote by the Supreme Court. Kayzer Soze wins Fiscal bill will pass on Dec 13, unless he tries to blackmail the president to try to pass the corruption bills
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Damn, what a huge all-time high breakout on SPX today
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Somehow Brazil's Senate president is still in power and now the talk is that they got the Supreme Court to adopt another innovation. Rumor is that they will vote not whether or not he can remain in his seat but that along with another option, which is he is allowed to be the Senate President but...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Thing is, we havent heard from him about what was this Casino strategy all about. I recall an interviewer asking him about a bankruptcy in one of his companies and his answer was 'I own over 50 companies, of course some of them are going to fail'. Given overall business fail rates of over 90%...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    how so? isnt Congress veto proof if they build a substantial majority?
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    This kinda of kind should happen more in a Banana republic like Brazil but still, if the US Senate decided to dare the Judiciary with a qualified majority, wouldnt that create new law which supercedes whatever brought a court order in the first place?
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I bring this up because that's sort of what is going on right now in Brazil. Back during the Senate impeachment vote they innovated, they divided the vote into 2, one for the removal of the President from office and another from stripping of political rights (being unelectable for 8 years)...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I believed the hype in the months leading to the election, I thought Trump was crazy and his policies would create chaos. But now that I got to know his people and tactics more closely, I think he is going to do just fine. It will be bumpy but he is likely to get good things done
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Another interesting excerpts from the Art of the Deal
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I got plenty of exposure between BRKB, PSH, EWZ, OAK, FNMA FMCC, plus the puts im short on EWZ, BRKB. Probably around 65%+ at this point. I think thats good enough for now. I will save for dry powder for a future Trump dip
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    SPY perking back up but I think I will sit this rally out. The santa seasonality and the trump optismism should continue but I think the upside will be limited, his first 100 (first 30 really) days should be pretty rocky. He is likely to do all kinds of things that might get people freaking out
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    What if the entire Congress decided to vote and retroactively make it illegal to issue such order? I know they dont like to do retroactive stuff very often but I believe they can if they want to
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Brazil doesnt use the Common Law system but I wonder what would happen if this occured in the US. What if the US Senate decided to say a court order was null because of xyz? Doesnt that create a presdecent and therefore, new law?
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Brazil Senate President is now refusing to obey the Judge temporary order. He got a number of other members of the Senate leadership (including the Senate vice-president) to back a document that says he will be president, until the entire court votes on the matter and he is allowed to present...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    But of course, it pays to LOOK crazy when you say this, that way the other side thinks they got no choice but to pull back. Usually the crazier you look, the better price you can get
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    He is trying to set the boundries early, so the contractors know they cant mess around with costs anymore
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    "you got to be very rough... or they will take the shirt right off your back"
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I see these as negotiation tactics, not socialism, or mental illness
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I took advantage of the FNMA/FMCC dip to buy more. I got a ~4% position there. I got no illusions this wont be a bumpy ride though. The Trump adm might even talk some shit about shareholders in order to gain leverage for a settlement. Because of that I will be selling some into strength and...
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