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VRX, huge news. $2B+ in asset sales in things people never even dreamed were worth anything. Looking to buy some long-term calls today to add to the position. Im looking at the 2019 jan calls

MDLZ no news, will sell today. Friday rumor was probably just some ahole trying to unload weekly options that were expiring that day

I got access to US monthly data going back a fair amount. I dont have all the data that I want (Still need US 3month T-Bills from 1879 to 1934) but I got US stocks 1871-2016, 10y bonds 1871-2016, Gold 1879-2016 and 3month T-Bills 1934-2016. All monthly series. With gold, I purchased data on the...

cool, how much does it cost?

I dont want to pay thousands to get the data. I need it for research

The Fed's FRED database has data doing back to January 1934 but nothing before that. Anyone know where I can get this?

I think people wrongly infer this because he did something similar in his hedge fund Empirica. But there he had clients and couldn't take much mark to market risk. Especially because they were already bleeding daily from the 10% risk in options. I doubt Taleb puts 90% of his money in T-Bills and...

One of the cheapest I can find is The Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate ETF (VNQI) About 5% yield Minus 20% tax is 4% 25 times multiple right now But this strategy of loading up on REITs to retire, even though its not bullet proof I think is pretty decent. Most people dont do well with stocks...

For Europe, I'm looking at https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239539/ishares-europe-developed-real-estate-etf 4.22% trailing yield, if I put 10% of growth this year minus a higher 25% tax, the final result is 3.48% 28.73 times annual income Both US and the EU are starved of real income

And my "REITs retirement ratio" being at 26.88 for the US vs 11 for Brazil is interesting because it compares with the US CAPE ratio of 24-26 in US stocks with Brazil's 9-10 CAPE. I dont know if that means anything but I though it was interesting that it was similar

The US 26.88 vs Brazil 11.11 is interesting because the spread between Brazil USD bonds vs US Treasury paper is around 200-250 basis points. So its not like the world is seeing some massive risk to the country. By and large the risks have been controlled. There are some risks involving taxation...

Which of course raises the question, if REITs (that are thinly traded here in Brazil) are trading at such ridiculous prices, what about the stock market? I heard a segment talking about REITs and in it they said that if you took all the liquidity of that market and turned into a stock, it would...

Here are the numbers on Real Estate US vs Brazil 4.65% 2017 yield for IYR - 20% tax rate = 3.72% after tax yield I'm assuming that 3.72% is a real return since rents and RE prices tend to keep up with inflation. So 3.72% - 52000 (annual per capita income) 100 - x the - sign is not minus but...

If you told someone from the US about a country where the central bank has an inverted yield curve with a 2.5 year recession and unemployment 12%+ and rising and the fiscal authority is doing austerity they would just say "lol WTF?". Bernanke had the guts to ignore a temporary pop in inflation...

What's interesting is that in Brazil it would take a fair amount more money to retire buying ACTUAL real estate (instead of REITs). First because the rental income would not be tax free and secondly because the REITs are being sold at a discount to the properties in them. Some properties are...

long MDLZ on buyout rumor, just in case

So I think this Brazil situation will play out either by the citizens realizing how a great opportunity this all is to accumulate risk assets and retire soon (and I'm trying to alert family members about this opportunity so they take advantage of it) or by international investors to earn good...

The reason I'm saying "I'm trying to buy" is because I cant really buy these assets at will. They dont trade in the US and I got a limited BP in Brazil. I'm trying to increase that buying power but it takes time and has tax consequences so I cant rush and do it all at once

90% in short-term fixed income of the same country is not safe at all

Brazil has a bit of a 'semi-German' mentality in the central bank and people in general. Because hyperinflation is still fresh in people's minds (especially the older ones) they underestimate disinflation and deflation risks. They think it can't happen here because of what happened in the past...