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And this is 8 months old.....

Yeah, based on the historical patterns, the avg length of a bull market and credit cycle contraction. The selloff we had this fall was a perfect setup to create a possible parabolic blowoff top that usually plays out within 6 months of the last correction in the bull market move.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/as-biggest-hedge-funds-stumble-one-currency-manager-gains-21-

Everything is still on schedule for the early 2016 blowoff top in the ES.

No, still missing the point. Bonds can be a lot more volatile then equities. Everything is variable. Everything depends on price. A 20-something would have made bundles more being long bonds for close to 3 decades vs equities. Bundles!!!! Everything depends on price. That age crap is...

Don't tempt the trolls. LOL.

You are asking the wrong question. It's not a matter of should you buy bonds as an asset class but rather at what price? Bonds are way too expensive right now but over two decades being long bonds actually outperformed equities with about half the volatility. But there is no value there...

When I use the word margin I'm not referring to leverage. Margin in economics is analogous to a derivative. It's the change in X for a one unit change in Y with respect to Y. When we say something is on the margin, it's the smallest incremental change for a given unit. So If I sell pizzas...

A "grinder" who is on the margin means you are the least profitable trader by definition. Any small incremental cost (loss) removes the marginal player, again by economic definition. I'm simply stating facts here. Maybe you misstated your current positioning, I don't know. But in the...

If you are "grinding" out profits then (in my personal opinion), you are doing something wrong. Grinders are the traders on the margin. Not where you want to be.

Before you start trading nat gas please make sure you know what a forward curve is. Otherwise you are going to get killed trying to buy it.

The law of round numbers is surprisingly effective in human behavior and the markets. Books could be written on it.

Thanks Wappler. Nice to see a comprehensive list. I know I still need to talk to you. I'll send you a pm this weekend.

Bounced nicely off the monthly and weekly A down too. Failed nicely at the last QTR A up. Something there for everyone! USD/JPY nice early cycle confirm on the monthly.

OK Debbie Downer. :)

Honestly I would spend a great deal of time reading this thread. Especially the early stuff. There were some great questions asked over the years that were addressed on here that I think will help you nicely.

Nice job! That is what I like to see. You did your work, you found something no one else found, got a confirmation and attacked. Good work. You even had the QTR A down to lean on for risk.

I agree, I think thin markets have lots of opportunity because my definition, they are not crowded and the easy money crowd avoids them. Have to admit I've never looked at Milk futures though. I have looked at Lumber. There is an ETF also that tracks lumber. In fact there are a lot of good...

There are intelligent ways to go about it. I'll keep them to myself. I don't need everyone piling into that Canadian thumb tack maker. :)

Thanks. That's what I'm talking about. A stock I never heard of before. :)