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The non-triggering of CDS so far has been a good policy. Had they triggered on the first haircut proposal(20 something %) the payouts would not be realistic compared to how much people would eventually lose on the bonds(70%+)

So far I have been wrong on my recession call. TLT is in the red and I got squeezed on EWH. On the good side BRKB(Which is my largest stock holding) has been doing well, FMCN is squeezing me(I emailed the old grumpy accountants blog and they said their model indicate 99% chance of fraud in this...

Bought some Mar puts as well

Just bought the Jun 2012 15 put. Just in case they go bust pretty quickly. They only hold $3m in cash. Shorting has been prohibited for 1 day apparently

I'd say Buiter has a far deeper understanding of the EUR zone and finance than our resident mentally ill friend

Does anyone know William Buiter forecast for the EUR for the next year or 2?He thinks there is now 50% chance Greece will leave the EUR zone

How can you be 96%+ sure the HMKA will not revalue?

IB doesn't pay interest on the first 10K of the position, this distorts the rate if the position is not large I use Oanda for FX trading as IB is more costly(Oanda can go under without any sort of guarantees though)

Speaking of anti-tilson ETF retards..

Ah I see

I use the pair because I don't think there is other alternative. I'm not sure the upside is limited compared to the cost. I calculated my Oanda cost at a bit over 0.5% a year and my upside estimate is 25%. That's 50-1 There is the possbility that I close the trade at a capital loss(with the...

If there is no correlation is probably because at high rates people just flat out don't pay the taxes and find ways to cheat the system. No because the taxes weren't harmful

GMCR down 4% NFLX up 21% Where are the anti-tilson ETF idiots?

HKD at 7.75, close to ceilling. Fed says rates will stay low till late 2014. HK elections are in March(I believe) I won't be selling my hkds anytime soon. If it touches the ceilling they will be forced to so QE. There is a chance they won't be so happy and will make a move

NFLX jumped a ton after earnings report, funny I don't mentions of the Tilson ETF by the usual characters lately. I wonder why

My BRKB put expire worthless today. Won't be selling anymore puts anytime soon. Not until the VIX is more fairly priced(upwards). Perhaps I should be going long volatility I'm far from expert on this matters, maybe atticus can help. What would be the best way to profit from a future vol...

I increased my EUR shorts(USD) today. About 5% PS, not a big bet by any means but I rather avg into this position

The problem is all the debt they have that is not denominated in the national currency

Ok but do you believe your rules are programmable or you think there are elements of intuition and discretion that can't be coded?

Maybe after years but the immediate effect of countries dropping shouldn't be a rally in EURUSD in my view. Its going to be a bank run situation where capital is going to be running. Some of that will stay in the EUR zone and go to Germany but a good chunk will probably go to other currencies...