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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    C failed stress test by 0.1 while JPM passed by 0.4 And the difference is a large dividend hike and huge buybacks?Way to go Fed
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    My personal rule is not to short secular bull markets. Since that is my view on the commodity sector, I can be bullish or neutral but not short
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I think the Kindle Fire gives clues on their strategy. Selling bellow cost to win space in the market. I'm reading a business book that gives a summary of what is taught in US MBA programs(Steven Silbiger is the author). In the strategy chapter they talk about how being larger helps the company...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    It can give an idea on where the problem is. Gross profit includes the shipping costs(According to 10K), so thats not where the problem is(Which the blogger mentioned) The company generates more than $3B a year in cash but very little in net income, apparently there are other costs that are...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Gross profit divided by Revenues
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    AMZN net income could be misleading http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cf?s=AMZN+Cash+Flow&annual Apparently they have been producing quite a bit of operating cash. Its the 'Changes In Liabilities' that is being a drag on earnings(And operating income), not sure quite what that is The actual...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    To me it seems that either Amazon is on a suicide mission with their pricing strategy(Not likely) or they plan to raise prices down the line. Seems like they are trying a play on economies of scale and loyalty
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    This is not to say that playing a greater fool game right now won't work. In fact, using the Hussman model to the long side plus a good stop strategy probably makes money. But if I were to do that, the first thing I would do is to admit to myself that I'm playing greater fool not to pretend that...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Details on Hussman model http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704759704577265360531477348.html "• the Standard & Poor's 500 trading at more than 8% above its 52-week exponential moving average • the S&P 500 up more than 50% from its four-year low • the "Shiller P/E,"...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    My point was that people ripped ISDA for what they did but it actually helped the people who bought CDS
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-07-22/isda-says-greek-aid-package-shouldn-t-trigger-debt-swaps.html
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    At what price are they trading?Seems to me that ISDA did a favor to those who bought CDS, had it triggered last year they would have gotten much less
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    COMMITTEE DETERMINES AUCTION TO BE HELD ON MARCH 19 I'm curious which bond they will auction and how the exchange will influence the price of it
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I disagree that a mutual fund like Hussman should be benchmarked against a stock/bond portfolio. I find this suggestion bizzare given all the regulations in terms of what he can do are(If he was a hedge fund it would be a different story) Plus his bond fund has also beat its benchmark(7%...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    You probably made some money from the ads in your site. Multiply that by 2000x, every single day. Its well known that media/information sites do better in bear markets(CNBC ratings soared in 2008). He WANTS things to be bad so he can make more money off the ads, he will even lie and mislead...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Can someone explain to me what is ZH talking about here http://www.zerohedge.com/news/has-japan-run-out-cans-kick "And the absolute basis (purple line) between CDS and JGBs remains notably above any of its peers reflecting more of the possibility of a hyperinflationary or devaluation 'event'...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I believe his was model was wrong once(2010) and the only reason it was wrong was because he overrode the rules by using ECRI indexes instead of what he backtested. Plus at the end of the day we are all using "models", taking fundamental input and making a bet is also a model, its a set of...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    His economic model indicates recession, he already explained his model in detail. His stock model that triggered signals before major declines in stock prices has also signaled that the current price action is similar to the ones that happened before major declines(overvalued, overbought...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I'm thinking is a bit bizzare how people can bet on QE3 and think the economy will do just fine at the same time
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Cut down some TLT
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