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CNBC reports JPM sold 60% of the position. Dimon reports they will make a profit this quarter. Surprise surprise, panicky investors were wrong

The elements of risk can be cut down by waiting for greater evidence that the turnaround is working. There will be a cost in terms of price paid per share(The stock will gap up) but the difference between the fair value of the stock and the price after the gap will still be large due a number of...

Actually I was arguing that bringing up an authority is not a fallacy in lots of situations. But your ego of never admitting you are wrong(except if hocus pocus technical 'indicators' tell you are wrong) made you think I was arguing against your constant quoting of gurus but I wasn't

Its often said that one shouldn't appeal to authority in a debate as it could be a fallacy. Thats only true sometimes. If the avg person plays a hand of poker in a certain way that way could be right or could be wrong but if Allen Cunningham says it was wrong, its almost certain that the person...

Some thoughts on JCP If discounts and coupons work why not take them to the extreme. Why not price things at $200 and sell them for $20. Obviously people aren't stupid they can tell when they are flat out being lied to but thats not even the main issue, apparently JCP lost access to good brands...

I could dig out JCP numbers and show the reason their sales per sqt ft are lower than the competition are due their old promotional strategy and excessive non-real estate costs(as opposed to some curse sent by gods) but it would be pointless, darkhorse would just pick on a spelling mistake quote...

You are wrong. Its a matter of extent, JCP was the worst in terms of over reliance on promotions. There is a middle ground which the competition already uses, yes people are stupid with cupoms but they are not THAT stupid. This is a micro story. Even if the company just matches the competition...

JCP is misunderstood by the markets, the way they used to do business(coupon and discounts in masse) is NOT a normal way a retailer or dept store behaves. The switch in strategy is being called a 'change' but it should be called 'return to normality of real world business'. The people who think...

Reading the study more carefully it seems that Openness actually decreases the change of exit. So there is even less of a chance of a Swiss exit and decreased change of a HK exit by that factor as well In all 4 factors Switzerland does not look likely to exit

In the other hand HK is way above the avg in the time spent on the regime(29 years!), have high inflation and rank quite high in openness Because inflation is likely to fall and RE to crash I'm not inclined to be long right now but when things settle down I will be back on it

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=922244 Study of fixed exchange rates. Things that increase chance of exits -How long they have been on it(The more the more likely they will exit) And if I'm interpreting the results correctly(Which I might not be) -Inflation(The higher...

I don't think that is right even if it is I don't think it increases my costs. I made my decision after seeing the actual commissions paid. SMART was costing me more than routing to BATS directly

Too small to even bother, its barely in the money

Yeah, this seems right. The difference might be that in period of relative tranquility the beta model will do better but in a crisis(where correlations go to 1) the ATR model would do better I supposed for trading in short period(daytrading) beta is superior because its unlikely to change...

I tried that. I remember it messed up my market orders. I could be wrong, I was assured by someone from IB in the forum that would not affect the market orders but I remember it did. I also don't trust that system, I rather put the orders in the ECN I choose rather than let them pick and choose

Lets say you take a stock ATR divide by the stock price and multiply by 100(To get percentage terms), you do the same for the SPY and compare the ratio of the stock ATR Vol to SPY Vol, you will get a number that in theory is similar in nature to beta(The actual number differ a lot) Which one...

BATS have better rebates for adding liquidity. SMART was sending me to ARCA, BSX and god knows where else. They both go against the mini-trend, difference is with BATS you pay less taking a small chance you won't get filled if the price reverses at that same exact price. With ARCA and others you...

The swiss banks in trouble would be very bearish for CHF as it would lose its PPP premium

I've been using this strategy now for over 6 months. Here are some thoughts -You have to be a monk in terms of focus. I made a few mistakes in my spreadsheets that end up costing me several weeks of profits. The other day I forgot to update the closes of my stock list and of course the...

In theory you are not paying the bid ask spread since buyers and sellers are agreeing at a single price. Of course, this assumes the specialist(for NYSE stocks) is not taking a few cents off your pocket, but it should be random whether this will hurt you or benefit you since sometimes you will...