Search results

I'd argue its the exact opposite, most who have debated you has felt you were unfairly characterizing their views (Of the top of my head I remember complaints from Specterx and Cutten)

lol, so essentially you countered arguments I never made(no vol equals no risk, among others) misquotes what I said 'for most people volatility IS risk' to 'volatility equals risk'. straw man king, all of that in a debate you don't find any use in(which begs the question of why even get...

Notice how you don't address the elephant in the room which is the market price will be right more often than the avg person 'correct price' even if sometimes turns out to be completely wrong(like in CDOs). If you think this question is moot then don't waste my time replying

Its said frequently that 'volatility is not risk' but most people can't beat the market, therefore if the market price changed after the person entered that position, that movement tells you more about what that asset is worth than the person's opinion or hopes the price is only 'temporarily'...

Markets might realize that front running the policy response in a major way is counter productive for it to actually get the response, sounds like an obvious thing but for some reason equity markets kept doing it This leads to a few things that could play out over the next 30 days -Bad...

The stock market decline from May to early July was quite contained in the sense that it was orderly, there was like 1 -2%(If that, can't recall) day during the whole move. To me the reason was that the Bernanke put was assumed to be there and people felt free to front run that(There was plenty...

Isn't a short 1 ATM put and buying an 1 OTM put(to protect against an 87 type crash) a short vol play in a dollar basis?

What if the VIX opens at 100 one day?It doesn't take a lot of skill to know it will come back down. Yes, it could go to 300 but if the size of the trade is small there would be staying power there

I added to EWH and EUR shorts a bit today. Might buy more TLT soon if it continues to rise

Is that something that you personally do during crashes?

With regards to the fat tails in 87 scenarios, that is yet another reason to short the ATM puts and buy the the OTM put. In those crashes usually there is a bounce or a mega collapse. Its rare that the price stays where it is, so there is an edge there

Shorting the puts during a panic can make sense when they are hedged by a even lower strike put. If one assumes that IV is mean reverting(And I believe history shows that quite clearly), making this kind of bet probably has higher expectation than outright long in the underlying Why? Because...

I never did much options trading other on outright directionals but its quite possible that it can help my trading. Its about self-improvement

I certainly wasn't trying imply that the strategy would fit any scenario nor it would be a free lunch. It can however make a lot of sense for some stocks Take DMND, this stock is either headed for bankruptcy or its going to come back big time. I don't expect it to stay where it is, as a result...

What about the idea of playing the market maker?Shorting the options then delta hedging. The MM might have some advantages over retail but it could be that during times of high panic the IV edge can help cover that This strategy could be combined with a small directional bias in order to...

Let me ask you this, do you think that IV are consistently too high during single stock panics?For instance, if someone consistently shorted puts everytime IV had a really big spike, assuming they had good fills, would that make money on avg?No delta hedging would be made I ask this because...

You mean the back spread in a 2-1 ratio?

What do you think of doing this strategy in the longer-term puts(1 year exp or more)?Usually there is a quite a lot of premium in them which makes me reluctant to buy them

I was reading the 1st chapter of this book http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0470452544/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=speculationar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=0470452544 and I came across what I believe is golden advice that might help me short these type of...

If the $2B loss has some massive volcker implications then ALL big bank stocks should have collapsed. That didn't happen. JPM XLF spread collapsed, incorrectly due this just being a one time hit to earnings. Heck, this loss will just help them not to get complacent for another few years