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It can be estimated but its prone to be incorrect due black swans, fat tails, gaps etc. Thats why its important to have a margin of safety in your trades, you do this by being more selective about which trades you enter

I reshorted back to a medium sized position. if they repeg and the pair tanks 15%, I make 10%. I think that is good size here, too big of a position and the small losses (and interest charges) start to get annoying and its hard to keep making the trade, too small and I leave $ on the table. Not...

Panama is good for tax efficiency. No income taxes for non-Panama sourced income (that means all the US trading gains, as well as the online businesses gains), no stock market capital gains tax (for panamanian stocks), no bank interest tax, easy to get residency (especially if your country is in...

In theory they are completely hidden from everyone but in practice I have seen some weird shit, like really weird stuff. Just the other day I was trying to cover a short and the bid was at something like 55.22 the ask was at something like 55.45 I put my hidden order at 55.30 and then the bid...

Cut back on short USD/HKD, only small left. Will re-short once it retests the band

So what are they going to do? Make it illegal to move the domicile/headquarters of a company? What about after that, make it illegal for a US citizen to give up citizenship? The US is already of the most aggressive tax collectors in the world, more rules and restrictions are likely only to backfire

lol at "possible"

I believe there is positive expectation in doing this trade everytime the band gets tested at 7.75 because one of these times they will let the peg off (they have to print HKD and buy USD to keep it, so it inflates their economy even more) I don't expect it to happen this time but if they let it...

Shorted USDHKD in good size http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-11/hkma-buys-1-3-billion-in-currency-peg-defend-amid-merger-demand.html Unlikely they let the peg go in the next 2-3 weeks but the payoff will be huge compared to the risk if they do so. If it goes back to 7.755-7.76 I will...

"But FATCA’s biggest flaw isn’t its near unworkable complexity, it is simple math. Let’s start with a baseline understanding of the untenable financial position the U.S. is in. In 2011, the federal government received $2.2 trillion from all revenue sources and spent 3.8 trillion...

If it does applies to non-US citizens then a solution is to only bank with small banks that are unlikely to be targeted by the IRS. Big banks like HSBC are not good options. But honestly, the whole thing looks like a bluff

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-30/offshore-tax-crackdown-opens-with-30-penalties-for-banks.html Does anyone know if this will affect international wires from non-US citizens or non-US residents? If they want to screw with the bank, it might

The bigger your leverage the more market/black swan/blowup risk you are taking. In addition sometimes you can't take really big positions due lack of liquidity or HFTs who will detect you and increase your slippage costs

Robert, don't you think that this tax break is so huge that they will be forced to close within 1 year or so? I bet a lot of folks will be taking advantage of this. the financial incentive is just too great

Thanks. Just sending to IEX is enough, if they don't have the shares they will re-route to other places while preventing the HFTs from getting ahead of them (through the 350ms delay) and not going through dark pools (as far as I'm aware). Sometimes they do have the shares and you can get 'price...

So far in my tests IEX is a bit better than IB Smart, I'm having a smaller price impact with that then with IB's router. I haven't tested extensively but as a loose observation it is working

If you want to work for a bank then you are probably better off asking people in the industry who hire

None of these courses are likely to help you much, in fact they might even harm you because you will think you know something, you might develop theories/views of how things ought to work and this will make you attached to your trades. PHDs are probably the worst traders, they are too enamored...

The Willpower Instinct (great for learning what helps discipline and what harms it) The Psychology of High-Self Esteem (not on audible, only in the author's site but its phenomenal) Dark Pools (helps you understand why markets are the way the are now) Antifragile (great for learning how to...

Yes, this might be the issue. You have lower costs with bundled?