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That's exactly what I have been telling people! If Neves had won, it would have been the worst thing for Brazil. Because PSDB would be the ones left holding the bag of all the risky fiscal policies. He would have a crappy term and his party would be terrible to the uneducated who would think...

Also, the IMF is likely to bailout the country before it would default on these bonds. In addition, defaulting on the bonds might not work because of vulture funds 'holdouts' like in Argentina. So they will just inflate away the domestic debt rather than touch the USD debt

Not to mention the $370B in USD reserves Meanwhile, people are dumping these bonds because 'its brazil, sell'

The main reason why that debt is good is the fact that the government has $30B in foreign currency debt and they have $680B in domestic BRL debt. It makes no sense to default on the foreign debt. It doesn't help solvency and it doesn't help in anyway

The thing is, Dilma is doing things that their party totally hates. She hates it too. They are being forced by the market to cut down social spending, change labor safety nets (in the middle of a recession), etc. So if the choice is between Brazil being broke or PBR being broke, I'd say they...

Yes, you can check the chart. IVV had a huge wick candle that quickly came back up. Lots of ETFs did that. As a matter of fact I'm starting to put more GTCs orders in other ETFs at low prices to see if I get filled in case of a panic (to get long). Its not even about the profit on the order per...

I'm actually using IVV. Its an illiquid version of SPY, this will flash crash harder if there is a repeat of the august panic. It will diverge from SPY and ES and give excess returns for shorts (who put GTC covers ahead of time, mine are already live, even for outside regular trading hours)...

The good thing about locking up gains is that if this thing bounces and I don't believe the rally. I can re-short higher. The way things are playing out it looks like people are anticipating the October weakness and the market might even rally when it finally arrives

I locked in a bit more at $187 SPY. Still got 2/5. Its getting closer to the $185 target but I still want some in case there is a flash crash or a standard crash. But its getting though to keep holding. The gains add up and its hard not to lock them up

Short stocks in rallies into resistance points and cover into declines

I put a GTC order for covers on IVV. The price is set at middle of the wick of the Flash crash of August. I will do that in other ETFs as well (not for covers but to be net long). I think it makes a lot of sense having those orders out going into October with stock markets weak. If there is a...

Another random thought, that is completely unrelated but it occurred to me last week. Most governments in the world cap the maximum benefit a senior can get under a retirement benefit system. I would assume that such cap is based on the high end of what a resonable living cost can be plus an...

Random thoughts on the Valeant outrage. How come most people believe the price system is the best way to balance supply and demand (and hence, no one would support the adoption of the Soviet system of government determined prices) but somehow that does not apply to drugs? I would be happy to see...

IVV (SPY) and the 10year trades are working well. I took a bit of IVV (I'm probably down to 3/5 of the original position) but I'm still holding most of everything hoping for a flush in October. I have to be patient here. Stick with the original plan

The 'wealth' that Brazil created only happened due commodities/China and good global conditions. Now that the cycle turned, the wealth has been vaporized and the citizens are stuck with the bills for the social safety nets, without the wealth to back it up

Its funny. I was debating with some other brazilians who still insist in defending the government even though all the things that they did. It appears that the new 'socialists' these days want all countries to look like Sweden. Now, this would be all fine and great if they actually followed the...

The media is not talking about that much. They talk mostly about the USD, the grilock, proposed austerity measures and corruption. I don't think Petrobras is too big to fail and most people who look at this will think the same. But the problem is that the government might think so. Not because...

I plan to do some more work soon to determine how 'insolvent' (though thats a weird term to apply to a sovereign nation) the Brazilian government is. Here are some quick figures I gathered recently (they might be off by a little bit) Domestic BRL debt converted to USD $670B - at 14-15% annual...

Expect everybody now to comment on how stocks are a sell with October being so close. Of course, antecipating this at $200 SPY these fuckers didn't do. Now they want everybody to chase the market down. Well, its hard to do that and not mismanage the trade when you get squeezed. which is why a...

I made a bit daytrading short SPY but its tiny. I just thought the whole idea that markets could rise on hawkish fed speak completetly ridiculous. Seemed like the typical equity market BS of finding reasons to buy even if they suck. It doesn't just add up that these market can stand rate hikes...