Search results

I added a bit on 194.30s but im still being cautius here. funny thing is, I tried to long the market as a day trade for like 1 hour after the open. it just couldn't rally. when I threw the towel, it rose for like 5 hours straight. everything looks much easier from the outside

Markets tanking and 10Y ripping. Never got my adds on IVV in, was hoping to add today on a morning rally at $194-$195 SPY, risk-reward would have been huge there. Still got 2/5 IVV and 10% on 10y UST

but the advantage is that you only pay it once, and then you can lend out at 4% a year. that said I bought some futures and sold some BZF, I'm going to try to compare these too

However, I think you might be right for another reason. The margin requirement of the futures is half of BZF (with portfolio margin) there will be some BP release. Also, because it doesnt' require cash, one can by some USTs and earn some interest. This will be bad if libor rises above that UST...

Well, the main advantage is that you can lend out the shares and earn short fees (the rate is 9% now, I get half of that when IB lends it). Also, you can buy the exact amount you want to hedge instead of a fixed amount per contract

How much is the spread roll? Because if its similar as the regular session, is going to cost 1% a year or something like that

no withholding tax. it was considered a 'capital gain'. as I said, these days the short-term portion COULD have a tax but my calculations, this would reduce the implied yield on the ETF by only 1%

If I had to pay that spread once, it would be fine (like BZF). but every 2-3 months forever will add up!

as far as the CME futures go, I just don't see how I can use that. The spread is too wide and there is the constant need to rollover (due lack of liquidity in the back contracts). The implied cost of having to roll over the contracts (paying the spread and commissions) will wipe out a lot of the...

I was holding the ETF that day. It wasn't a loss, it was the year end capital gains distributions. The ETF gaps down by roughly the same amount of the capital gain distribution. It was a tax free 'dividend'. These days there MIGHT be a tax on the short-term part of the distribution (I need to...

The difference is the liquidity (BZF has much less) and the fact that BZF is really the 2month rolling interest rate. They use NDFs with expirations around the 2-3 month market so sometimes it takes a while for it to 'get' the new interest rate There might be another issue conscerning...

If you have money abroad and you want to earn the overnight rate you can buy BZF. At IB, you can even beat the brazilian bonds that earn the overnight rate because sometimes they will lend out the shares and you will get the short fees. BZF delivers the interest in the form of rising NAVs. Plot...

The september negative return probably reflects that people tend to antecipate the issues in october and sell ahead of time. This is just a theory but I'd be surprised if its not true

Acutally I confused the data. Its september that is negative http://www.businessinsider.com/average-monthly-returns-since-1929-2013-8 However, the data still shows that its one of the worst months. But what this doesn't show is the psycholgical factor. I don't think it was a coindicence that...

Two things, EWZ is diferent from the Bovespa. It doesn't have all the stocks. Also, there might be an issue conserning dividends. My chart, I believe, includes dividends. Wheares in EWZ you lost 74% but got paid something like 3-5% a year

In addition, in Brazil there is the bizzare tax loophole that makes stock market capital gains tax free if you sell small amounts per month. Although, I don't think the loophole applies to ETFs

Markets are bouncing but I'm not in a rush to add back the parts of my short that I covered. SPY got beaten down quite badly for almost 2 weeks straight. This might have legs If it pops to 194-195, the risk-reward of betting in a October reversal of buy everything to sell everything will look...

I posted a study last week the talks about this issue. The fed model (using interest rates to value stocks) is not right because one is comparing a real return (the earnings yield) with a nominal return (the bond yield). its a lot more complicated than that, Assness did a terrific job explaining...

Just to give an idea, check out this chart This is the bovespa priced in USD. You wont find this on ZeroHedge. The stock market actually did well even during the hyperinflation of the 80's and 90's, all the economic crises/recessions etc. Now, it was a very bumpy road but that volatility can...

I plan to keep doing some more research on Brazil. I find this market (and to some extend Russia and Turkey) exciting places to know more about. If you look at the US or Europe, from an investor perspective, its just downright depressing. Expected real rates of return have been compressed so...