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When I got hit with my loss on Gold I should have shorted a lot of it. It couldn't rally on the 'dovish' fed minutes, same thing happened with bonds but I wasn't trading that (still holding my 10y bonds though). I still have a lot of learn in these futures/ETFs but there are some good setups...

This situation here presents a pretty interesting dilemma. On the one hand you have general trading advice that tells you to cut losses and not add to losers, on the other hand you have a situation where a market has gotten very one sided and the risk reward of betting against it has improved...

The more hilarious reaction was the ES pop after the Yellen speech where she hinted a Dec hike. Markets pushed like 20 ES points Today bonds actually fell and my fed futures hedge barely moved. Equities are trading on emotions right now, not logic

My initial risk level was 2010-2020 on SPX but now I'm going to have to widen this. This market is so overbought and sentiment is so onesided that covering here is a bit like capitulating at the top. The market was stuck in that 2050 level all year long and did nothing. No we are supposed to...

Pretty terrible day for me. At this point I gave back the vast majority of my IVV gains from the September sell-off. After the minutes I played it pretty poorly. All my hedges failed. I tried gold and it reversed, I also tried NFLX because I liked the news and thought funds would chase it up...

dumped gold, it reversed quite surprinsly

I longed gold as a hedge after minutes. more dovish than expected

Am I the only one who thinks this is a great short setup on SPY/ES here? Close to the 2000 resistance, overbought (by many measures) and today there is a catalyst (fed minutes). what the minutes will say I don't think it matters (barring any big surprise), people are likely to look for reasons...

just as a interesting fact, from 2008 to 2014 (right before the big plunge), the real was down nominally against the USD but not when you factored in the interest income. With that, it was flat or just a little bit down, even though it had dropped quite a bit

long commodity basked currencies vs BRL, is effectively saying that 14-16% a year in interest does not compensate for the risks of the country. That was a good bet over the last 12 months but is it likely to continue to be after a 70% or so plunge? I'm not sure, either way its not a high...

There is gold too, which is looking investable for the first time in years. long USDBRL would have a component of exposure of shorting oil/gold..

If there is a trade I would consider would be long AUD/CAD/NZD vs BRL. Long USDBRL I'm not a fan. Too much exposure you continuation of the bounce plus with oil rocketing higher, one would be effectively saying oil is going lower. Which might or might not happen. Short comm bask currencies vs...

If you think about it, trading against the stock up trend bias is kinda like trading with huge commissions or huge bid ask spreads (its a cost constantly taking money from you, same with shorting uptrending assets). If you trade with huge commissions you need excellent setups with very good...

Also, because stocks tend to rise, having more edge in the trade is necessary because you are fighting the trend of 10-15%+ per year

The SPY and EWZ squeeze shows why I don't like to chase down shorts in indices. Its "easy" to short on the way down and it hard to short on the way up, thats why it works better to do the latter. The risk-reward is superior and there is a better sharpe ratio. This happens because in addition to...

Add some more at 198.40s, will bail out at 2010-2020 SPX. Now back to 2/3 short

I'm shorting Dec and Jan Fed futures. The idea is that if I get squeezed on stocks, then I will have a offseting gains on the futures as the stabilization of the markets leads the fed to hike in December

It feels like a short squeeze to me. Both from the shorts (who got too bearish at lower levels) and the longs who are underweight equities and are afraid of missing a recovery. They all chased it up

added some more at 196.30s. back to 1/2 short

Does the fact that you can use other bond positions to be long the futures (and roll over the contracts) add to long-term returns ? I'm trying to figure out the best choice for maximizing returns. for ex: if you put your money in 1-3 year USTs and long the 10y USTs futures, compared to being...