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Decided to cut SPY short early at 2010 SPX here, covered all. I dont like how this is holding up and grinding higher. This gap up was supposed to have been sold. Maybe it goes lower but I think the thesis has failed. Overall I made small, gave back a ton from Sep though

Going to use the 201.51 level on SPY as my exit level

Ended up buying around 7-8% in gold before the market started to run like crazy. Wont chase it up. Hopefully it will have a good pull at some point in the next few weeks

This is why I was reluctant to cover up at 200-201-202. It was an 'easy' thing to do, to chase it up there. The same with shorting at 193-192-191. It feels good but usually its the wrong thing to do. Now, I dont have much confidence this market will come crashing down but I got a set risk here...

I covered a bit under half of my IVV short and now will give the rest a try. WMT news and the profit taking that is going on might fuel the downside. Bonds are also rising. I still got a decent amount of bearish exposure in case the market cliff dives

The price action in gold finally makes it investable again

I'm planning to put 5-10% of my money in gold at this point. I'm doing that as a way to diversify away from the USD and BRL (my home currency). I dont consider this a 'macro bet', one is forced to choose a currency to keep your money on I'm simply looking this as an alternative currency that is...

Now its the dilemma, markets are weak and quite likely to gap down tomorrow. Do I cover into that flush and admit defeat or do I keep trying the thesis? I'm inclined to cover half and ride the rest (or be stopped out at SPX 2010). My fear is that the squeeze has affected the psychology of...

I also bought more 10y USTs

Closed fed futures position, tiny loss. looks like stocks are ready to roll over (SPY daily looks ripe for a fall)

Markets starting to pull. I will start covering into these pulls, then I might hold some for a bit longer just to see if the market continues down. will probably close fed futures position today

the setup is the overextended daily chart, combined with overextended morning action. its usually a high % trade for the short side, once it looks like people are taking profits

Pretty good example today of that setup I mentioned. This was wasn't as good because the gap up faded and THEN there was a morning pop. so the market didn't overextend intraday as much as it could have. but it did roll over, went red and flushed. I shorted in the cicle area but unfortunately I...

I define the exit area, then calculate the loss if it gets there

If SPY goes full retard, I will probably lose around 0.75%, maybe 1%. It doesnt sound like a lot but because my day to day fluctuations from day trading tend to be small. It will feel like quite a loss

For day trades (and some day trades that I keep holding for days) I usually risk 0.01% to 0.5%. For position and macro trades I usually have more risk tolerance. I might even to to 2% for good setups (though its really rare for me to go that high). I think the most I ever went to was around 10%...

Am I crazy to think this rally is based on shaky grounds? Its being fueled by commodities and global financial conditions easing as a result of expectating of no hike by the fed. But those were some of the things that prevented the fed from hiking in the first place. I think this is pretty much...

But again, the funny thing is, bonds sold off and gold finished red at lows. This report was only dovish to equities and steve liesman

But another pretty big mistake I made today was not buying SPY when it broke $200 for the third time. The first time it could have been just an algo thing from the minutes headlines, then it went red. The 2nd time could be just a fakeout rally. Then it pulled. but when it broke for the third...

There is another reason why I like ETFs/Futures and wish I had traded them more over the past few years. Having a skill set there is more valuable than just about anything else! For instance, over the past few years I have gotten pretty good at trading OTC stocks (OTCBB and pinksheets) but that...