Search results

But one thing is for use. Ackman should never have put 25%+ of his fund on a junk rated company that is levered 5-1. The whole 'volatility is not risk' idea is behind these sorts of mistakes. The company was rated junk and its bond had a significant spread over treasuries for a reason. The...

If you plan to hold the fund for the long-term you are probably going to be fine. Its just that strategically it makes sense to me for get out, barring any major surprise from Ackman

On the other hand, any fine to VRX is likely only to come out after years of litigation (specially given that they need to lose twice, on the fraud charges and on the philidor structure liability being their liabilities). So what matters is how liquid and strong VRX looks to be in a few years to...

But I will see what ackman has to say first, maybe he's got other stuff that the shorts are missing

I'm also concerned about this witch hunt that the company is going through. Healthcare costs grew faster than the CPI for a long-time. Now people are looking to witches to burn as a result of that. The state attorney generals and other folks are going to be really trying hard to find something...

I still think a very resonable scenario is that the fines involved will not be huge, most of the time this type of stuff gets settled for smaller amounts and companies move on. But the extra risk combined with all the time I'm spending researching it makes me think, its better to put my capital...

Recent events has shred more light on is likely to happen to VRX. The company has walked away from Philidor (which means they did illegal things in all likelyhood). Philidor will be potentially target from lawsuits (specially given they they are tied to a very politically unpopular Valeant and...

Recent events has shred more light on is likely to happen to VRX. The company has walked away from Philidor (which means they did illegal things in all likelyhood). Philidor will be potentially target from lawsuits (specially given they they are tied to a very politically unpopular Valeant and...

Bonds getting smacked today. yet they held up quite well yesterday. weird as shit the action yesterday

I sold 2/3 of my 10y bonds and switched to 4y bonds. Going to protect myself a bit from a bond rout in case people freak out. The fed futures position I plan to hold for a while, the speeches should sound more hawkish going forward. The big question is to whether I will hold through NFP next...

http://www.beathft.com/?p=88

Its really incredible how to the Fed, 'global conditions' has turned into pretty much what the S&P500 is doing. They don't care one bit about China/Brazil or Europe if stocks are not falling. If they do, then they are all over the issue

The thing about this hikes is that I don't think they will be 'real' hikes. I'm in the Dalio camp that the fed might go 25 or 50bps up but they will have to stop and potentially even cut in the future. The deleverging is still going on and new cycle of significant hiking will lead to a bear...

I realize now that I probably should have sold all my 10y bonds. There is no much point in holding it in an enviroment where risk assets are getting chased and the fed is threatening to hike. I got some hedging going with the fed futures short but frankly, I probably should just sell it all and...

He is basing that off his own forecast for employment/inflation which is very similar to the Fed so he thinks the data will go to where the Fed would act

Hatzius: "We continue to expect the committee to follow through with a rate hike in December"

I wouldn't 'get up and dance' on US equities because I think they are too richly priced. But Brazilian stocks trade at 11 times earnings, 1.15 or so book value and 4.5% dividend yields. Plus pessimism is high (which is good) so they are an interesting investment

this way I can profit in some of the ridiculous upward bias instead of just watching from the sidelines

This is why I'm making more of an effort to be more bullish and be long some equities. My skepticism makes it hard for me to be long stocks. But I'm working on it. I think its an important skillset that I lack. I usually comfortable betting against things and thinking things will get worse. Part...

Thats the tough thing about equities and how they behave. The whole rally was based on the idea that the fed was stading pat till march 2016. The fed comes out and tells them they are wrong. markets drop for 30 minutes and come up back. that after having rallied 10% on a totally wrong belief...