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Fed seems reluctant to go full blown dovish (or at least, thats the stock market interpretation of the statement). I put on some hedges, short SPY, long GLD and 5 year bond futures. but i might dump it at any moment. its hard to not rely on the trend when things are so confusing

$50, maybe less if you buy used on ebay

He didnt say that. I have a macbook pro with 3 external monitors. shouldn't be too hard to do this on an air. check out display link adapters

This whole benchmarking against the S&P500 is a little nuts. I would argue that someone who can't beat that index can actually be a great manager and even deserve his fees in any of these cases -If his drawdowns are significantly limited compared to the S&P500 and he still makes a nice return...

http://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/2014/09/Pershing-Square-2015-Annual-Letter-PSH-January-26-2016.pdf Ackman put out annual letter where he talks about an index bubble. I agree with him. I talked about this in this journal before. I believe its more a 'benchmarking bubble'. Everybody is...

use a USB to VGA/HDMI adapter

In wealth building "spend less than you earn and invest the difference", in trading "never risk more than 1% of your equity"

Its tough, when you trade ES/SPY you have to be on top of all the catalysts and be right on the 2nd or 3rd level thinking in order to gain an edge. If you miss a factor or two, they take your lunch away

Its the old 'when a market fails to go down on bad news, its usually due for a bounce'. I thought the move would happen tomorrow into the meeting. Usually there is a seasonality edge of being long into the 2PM announcement I guess the creation of the 2day meeting has made the use of that edge...

An interesting rally, it looks like people saw that after a 6% sell off in China and no significant reaction in US equities, it looks like the China scare is having diminishing returns and everybody loaded up the boat after the services PMI and CC index failed to give a reason to sell. I missed...

China tanks 6% and ES futures are now green. Looks like Fed put expectations are high

If the USD index pops 5% and speculators start to test the upper band on the HKD, it definetly will look interesting to bet against the peg. You got to be early though, i don't think they will stick around very long with the peg IF they really think its a good idea. Its dumb to delay the decision

The HKD long trade was mentioned in this journal in the past. I would definetly bail out of this currency now. The USD rally already did some of the adjustment for the HKD (since they move together). Now with this China issue it becomes a question of whether they could actually devalue the...

I guess the bonds also are but they are not likely to fluctuate much

Even though BRKB has a 2 to 1 asset to equity ratio. Only a portion of that is market to market (the stock portfolio plus the equity puts), which is around $115B or around 0.45 of book value

Another interesting opportunity is Pershing Square Holdings bonds. They yield around 7.5% to 8% in USD (depending on whether you get filled on the bid or ask). If you take PSH stakes in MDLZ APD (two lower risk stocks) and its unincumbered cash, that covers the bond size by several times. So...

No problem, I welcome challenge and criticism. We can all learn together from it

And even if I'm totally wrong that the Buffett buybacks (and the buffett followers buying) will help to holdup the price of BRKB and it tanks 20% from here. With a 30% position, that is a 6% total networth drawdown. That's not fun and all but it still quite managable (specially in the context of...

I believe the underperformance of BRKB in 2008 had a lot to do with their exposure to financials and the S&P500 puts that they sold. It was ridiculous to sell BRKB based on those puts but a lot of people were being irrational back then. I believe the chance of a banking crisis in the US over the...

30% might seem a lot in 'just one stock' but I view BRKB more like a mutual fund. They have over 110 companies (between stocks and privately held business). And these companies are the ones with the best track records in the US, so they are far more resilient to bad times. According to some...