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That said, it looks like stocks are in a short-squeeze now (kinda like on Oct). The bears and the underweight longs are scrambling to buy anything they can. So it might be prudent to wait for a red day in the daily (or a news catalyst) before starting to put bearish positions

Looking at the August, September tops and Dec lows, is looks like there will be a lot of resistance in the 1980-2000 area of the SPX. I will probably concentrate my call selling there

I thought the range was going to be 2050-2100 down to 1910-1990 but I didn't realize what El-Erian talked about. The lack of liquidity, when the sellers showed up markets just kept collapsing as there was no liquidity for everybody.

The more I study options the more I see them as a valuable tool for an investor. For example, while a lot of people recommend selling puts in order to get in a stock at a cheap price that you like (as opposed to the current stock price, which you might not like as much) I don't see people...

Thats a mistake I made in the new year ramp. I should have sold ES/SPY calls for strikes above 2120. That and more duration in my bonds, less 5ys and more 10ys.

In the future I plan to sell SPY/ES calls to hedge a bit my longs and generate some income. I find hard to believe that a rally to 2000 would be sustainable, so perhaps its an opportunity to sell OTM calls

Are we witnessing a huge short squeeze in the bond market? if you are short bond futures, eurodollars or Fed funds futures and the Fed goes negative, your losses will be huge so that seems to be driving the shorts to cover and cover now. I don't think thats going to happen so I'm using this...

Because his insurance companies make an underwriting profit, he effectively gets paid to lever up and buy safe stocks. Even guys like Ackman have to pay 5.5% a year to lever up on stuff. We can borrow at less than 2% from IB but then, we are subject to margin calls. 0% or small payments without...

yes, I believe Assness had a paper where the explained the success of Buffett. Its essentially a leveraged play on low beta stocks (with consumer staples being a major component). he gets the leverage from the insurance companies

One better example to illustrate this, imagine if in Zimbabwe (back on the hyperinflation days) the stock market didn't rise. Companies would be able to buy back all their stock with their cashflows, dividend yields would be gigantic, buyouts would be rampant. In an inflationary economy stocks...

For a non-brazilian investor, its tricky because you take on FX risk. And the real might be the variable the changes and makes the economy more sustainable (specially given that politicians are not doing their job). For me its ok because most of my costs are in BRL, so the FX risk is not a problem

One thing is for sure, what is going on in Brazilian stocks right now is very unsustainable. Inflation is high, this pushes NGDP up. NGDP is going up even though the country is in recession. Despite all of this the index is going down. That after having gone down for several years straight. The...

I guess thats true, the US tend to be a safe haven even in stocks, they are down this year less than most other places

Yes, thats an issue. However, when everybody is bearish in an asset class, usually, the implied forward return goes quite a bit higher. Everybody and their mother was bearish on oil, oil is now up like 5 dollars off the lows even though you had the mother of all inventory builds. A lot of people...

I'm not very concerned about that. Over the long-term corporate profits growth follows NGDP growth with a good correlation. The Fed has been very effective at preventing deflation (which the BOJ has failed at, and to some extend the ECB). The Japanese and European QEs have been modest, the...

damn, the whole thing was a pump and dump from the russians. i bet they were all over CL and ES futures

damn what a fake out. got rid of hedges with a small loss

El-erian, says fed to hike 1 or 2 max this year. recommends 25%-30% of assets in cash

Good article http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2016/01/fomc-recap.html

I lightened up on BRKB as well because it looks like I will be assinged on the puts as the market struggles to put on a run