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The front end seems rich here in a enviroment where equities have stabilized, inflation is creeping higher and employment is still strong

what about the futures

Does anyone one know how long did it that on the day of the attack for them to suspend trading? anyone have an intraday chart of ES or SPY?

This restatement looks meaningless "Correcting the misstatements is expected to reduce reported 2014 GAAP EPS by approximately $0.10 and increase 2015 GAAP EPS by approximately $0.09" It has little or no impact of things going forward. If thats the type of thing the adhoc committee is going to...

Also, with ETFs you can avoid the 30% withholding using Single Stock Futures (in case the ETF has them). SSFs do have the libor financing drag I was referring to earlier but depending on the yield of the ETF, it might be worth it (specially because you will put 0 money down, so you can earn...

A bear market in stocks combined with one in bonds is a possibility but it looks unlikely as the Fed seems committed to come to the rescue of stocks. The latest FOMC minutes confirm this. Its a risk to keep in mind but not to the point where one would hold cash instead of bonds. If you are...

"When fed hikes rates, the yield is supposed to go up as much as the financing cost, isn't it ?" Perhaps, but if you are long the futures you will lose money as this happens. Furthermore, the Fed can flatten or invert the yield curve. during an inversion, the strategy could have a negative carry...

If the Fed hikes rates more it might get to a point where the drag will be more than the yield and it will be uneconomical to hold and rollover them as an investment (though,they will still be great leverage vehicles). What one can do to offset that is to increase the duration of the cash bonds...

Yes, STCG now are subject to 30% withholding. Harry Reid (of all people) tried to extend that loophole but Congress didn't follow through. As a result now you have to be very careful about which ETFs you buy as a non-US investor. A lot of the time you are better off trying to use options...

I'm no expert but I believe the futures have a drag on returns that reflect libor financing. This happens because you get exposure to the bonds putting no money down. You need margin collateral, but since you can buy UST bonds (earning interest) and then use them as collateral to be long futures...

I used today's weakness to add some to my gold position. still saving some bullets to add lower. I really think the future for gold in the next 12-24 months is likely to be great. The market seems to have been 'woken up' from the years of dormancy. Now things like financial repression...

I still got my short SPY calls (198,199, 200) but that is offset by long stock in BRKB, PSH and EWZ. I don't get much upside after that but I probably should be selling sotcks after a rip that large anyway. With the calls, at least I get paid while i wait

So the bears are struggling now because the amount of bearishness has not been followed by enough economic deterioation and/or financial disruption. Of course, now its time to cry about how much more we should have bought on the way down

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-17/biggest-short-squeeze-black-monday-sends-dow-900-points-thursday Its like Oct 2015 all over again

That was taken from here

This is why a lot of criticism of easy central bank policies is misguided " Central Banker: But what if I'm too courageous and then I overshoot my inflation target? A. Both lab experimentation and macroeconomic history shows that price-setters are much more reluctant to lower prices than raise...

I don't know much about these stocks. I think David Ronsenberg was talking about something like that years ago

The gold thesis is the increased skepticism against central banks, the war on cash and negative bond rates turning gold into an asset that pays 'interest' in the form of lack of subtraction. I'm not going to lie, I didn't get in because of those reasons, I mainly wanted to diversify away from...

I think so far this year I'm down about 1-2% on my macro/investing. Mainly due the mistakes I outlined before. Not having enough duration in my bond hedge in the new year ramp (and failing to sell SPY calls during the same period) and then not buying puts last week when markets gave a clue of...