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This is another reason for me to scratch my head when I see good fund managers in Brazil attacking the stock market, saying they are skeptical of the rally, that they dont think it can last. You already need a pretty good reason not to own a certain percentage of your assets in stocks, even if...

Here is an interesting strategy: buy all global markets with CAPEs bellow 10, equally weighted. Sell them if their valuation rise above 16 and buy another bellow 10 market. I wonder what would be the results of this compared to the S&P500 over the last 80 years I'm sure there were some huge...

Another interesting article http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com.br/2016/08/mean-reversion-gravitational-super.html "Buy and Sell: The CAPE's timing payoff is greater when it is used as a buying metric than as a selling metric. In fact, you make a positive payoff from using a low CAPE as a...

http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v72.n3.1 Interesting article by Siegel. US stocks might not be as overvalued as most think

By this I mean the Bovespa index, not EWZ. EWZ is priced in dollars so its a different situation given that the Real is unlikely to go back to its old historical levels

A concern would be if GLD, GDX and GDXJ go bellow the 200MA and cant get back above. To me that would be a big red flag. But looking at the current situation, it feels like a crowded trade doing its thing, so I'm sticking with it

Gold and gold stocks got clobbered today. I need to think about them further but at the first sign this looks to me a market that got too bullish (a hedge fund hotel of sorts) and is now in the processing of cleaning out the weak hands. When the Fed hiked last year gold got smacked before...

The current president is working on retirement reform, a spending control law and even Labor reform. Now, he is not getting a lot of traction with labor reform but in 2018 with a new congress, the prospects of labor reform along rules to make easier to do business could be a real help to the...

Brazilian stocks are trading at 14 times earnings but thats in the middle of a depression. Profit margins are in very low by historical standards (bottom 10% the last time I checked), as they return to something more resonable the market will look cheap. The shiller CAPE is at 8 and change, this...

Huge win for the right wingers in Brazil municipal elections. The main left wing party got crushed in a huge way. Brazil which went from a left dominated government has now moved towards the center and in 2018 is likely to move towards the right when they take over Congress and the Presidency...

Looking at Trump tax return, the surprising part to me is how little he had in dividend income and capital gains

This strategy might make sense if you are a non-US based investor and want to avoid the 30% tax withholding of ETF dividends

Berkowitz recommends CHK 2017 and 2020 bonds

dude, he only wants to work 5 minutes a day

Not to mention that its a contradiction with his market beliefs. If market insurance is consistently overpriced, why get out when people are trampling over each other to buy more of it? Because of risk management? Well, then you probably oversized to begin with

A big potential whipsaw is the 'take losses at 2x of max loss' that Sossnoff advocates. In a bear market vol of vol is likely to be up a ton. As a result he might get in and out of trades over and over again. This has the potential to exacerbate losses

Earning risk premium from option selling is another tool in a multitool box. Its nice when its part of multi strategy way to earn returns from the market. To do it as a solo strategy but more importantly, to apply leverage to it, its just asking for trouble. I know some guys who can do that but...

What I want to know is what will happen if OP gets hit with a 50% drawdown, will he stop trading and quit the strategy or will he continue despite a significant amount of financial and mental capital loss? Dont give me the bullshit of "a 50% loss wont happen", the index has gotten shredded by...

Mindblowing that AVXL was allowed to have its S3 go effective by the SEC. Now this stock has turned into wild west trading. If you read the prospectus of how it works, Lincoln Park can get shares at the avg of the 3 lowest closes over the last 10 days (which they can flip at anytime). The...

Its a good idea if they test this out in a few tickers just to see what happens. if its broad based right away, then its nuts