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Let me correct this, its most like 20-22% because most of the exposure comes from OTC ITM call options. He didnt had to put down as much an outright position. Ackman seemed to know that this buyout was going to happen in a few years (hence making it better to use calls instead of stock). He is...

According to my calcs here, almost 1/3 of PSQ exposure is in MDLZ. With PSH (public stock) is a little more because of the leverage. If this buyout does happen, it will be a big gain for Ackman

Lemann from 3G lives in Switzerland and the leak is coming from a Swiss magazine. Makes me think there is credibility to this

Mondelez +9% after hours on rumored Kraft Heinz interest Dec. 14, 2016 4:25 PM ET|About: The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)|By: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor Citing a "very well-informed" source, Switzerland's Bilanz magazine says Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) is putting together a bid for Mondelez...

No. They covered the OTC call options with $165 strikes they were short for a penny. Probably to book the gains in this tax year instead of the next https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/885590/000119312516791842/d309515dex9913.htm

Trump support will increase in 2018. He might even develop a fillibuster proof Republican support

PSH sold 3.5M VRX shares at 14. Thats for tax loss selling purposes to offset the liability from CP sells. He will rebuy within a month

Because I was that guy I can usually them when people are doing that. Lots are doing right now with the Trump rally, they say "I want to see the policy specifics" "This market is up on pure hope, nothing concrete" "I just feel that this all will end badly" "What about the bad things about Trump...

And believe me, I was that guy. But I learned the hard way. You got to be studborn when dealing with stock markets, the default answer should always be to buy or hold what you have. The exceptions should be saved for really important events that will have huge impacts. It certaintly shouldn't be...

People look at day to day movements (and the logic/news behind them) and then try to project long-term returns based on that short-term logic. Lets say they bail out because they project that logic and they dont like what they see. Then the game changes, that logic no longer applies and the...

I've learned the hard way, the stock market doesnt have to make sense. You try to use logic to figure things out, you are just asking to miss out on a big rally

Now Brazil will tackle pension/entitlement reforms. I got a different view on this than economists, people think the markets needs this reform in order to be able to rise. I think thats wrong, the government will fail to pass this as its too controversial and the President is losing influence...

Now all Brazil needs is for the Central Bank to wake up and cut its ridiculously high interest rate. The expectation is that they will increase the cuts to 50bps from 25, with a small chance of 75bps. Inflation is headed to 5%, a 13.75% central bank rate after a 3 year recession is so laughlable...

Brazil fiscal bill was approved by the Senate today, should be signed by the President today or tomorrow. Its huge for Brazil. Now it will be in the constitution for 20 years that no real increase in spending can occur (only nominal, the law will allow some flexibility after 10 years). It it...

Effectively, you will be riding up a huge bull market (in real terms) while at the same time locking in gains and redeploying those gains into income producing assets like stocks, real estate and bonds

The long-term return of gold is the inflation rate but if you add in unexpected high inflation/hyperinflation episodes in, combined with rebalancing (selling into buying panics by people rushing into real assets for protection), then that return can actually resemble something like the stock...

Buffett is known for bashing gold saying there is no reason to own it, it doesnt pay interest, etc. But that is only true because he was fortunate enough to live in a stable country where inflation averaged something like 4% over 100 years. If you happen to be in a country that will have a high...

My father bought some small town land in the 80's with fixed rate debt. Shortly after there was a burst of hiperinflation and interest rates skyrocketed. He says that the guy who was selling all this land was quickly wiped out as people paid him back with virtually pocket change in just a short...

I thought that during hyperinflations one could make money just by holding hard currency (USDs, EURs, etc), the data is showing that is not the case. I suppose what matters is FIRST burst of hyperinflation, that one that catches everyone off guard. Thats when people will rush into hard currency...

It also raises the idea that when investing in risky markets, if you are considering hedging the FX risk, you are probably better off saying "fuck it" and taking the risk. I have also seen some EM studies showing that not hedging added something like 2-3% a year in returns. Of course, if you...