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I think a logical move for most bucket shops would be to start introducing variable margin on each pair. It's nonsensical to offer 50 to 1 leverage on the EUR/USD and at the same time offer the same leverage on say USD/HUF. As if they have the same risk. If each of these shops would have...

No exceptions. Most professionals expect the HK peg to end badly as well. In fact, I can't remember if it was Bill Ackman or Kyle Bass, but one of them has a massive put position betting against the USD/HK peg. He said the puts were pennies and long term but he he believes the position will...

Gabby, in the history of currency markets, no peg has ever not ended in disaster. They all fail. While this announcement was completely out of the blue, most FX traders knew the peg could not be sustained. Trading the Swissy under these conditions is a high risk situation. In 2008 during the...

Here are some things to think about regarding the SNB courtesy of http://ashraflaidi.com. 1. The immediate focus turns to the ECB. The SNB certainly seems to believe that sovereign QE is coming and comments from Coeure late in the day were another hint. Even without the ECB, the SNB has quit...

No, the Swiss have the same issues as here in the US. Except it's worse because their middle class is bigger. The "official" inflation on every day items is unch but on real estate and services, very high. The whole genesis of the peg was to keep Europeans visiting the country to stimulate...

They were importing inflation from the EU. When you keep your currency artificially low, money comes in to purchase goods. Well the price of goods starts to go up and you have inflation. So you have to let your currency appreciate.

The Swiss removed their price floor. That is the type of thing you want to prepare the market for. That would never fly over here.

Seriously? DRW is a giant. Chopper is one of "the" premiere trading houses in the country, not just Chicago. DRW's fixed income operation is probably on par with Goldman. Don Wilson is a legend in the trading industry.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-13/pitt-bale-to-star-in-film-version-of-lewis-big-short-.html Brad Pitt, Christian Bale and Ryan Gosling are set to star in a film version of “The Big Short,” Michael Lewis’s book about investors who made fortunes in the subprime mortgage crisis, a person...

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a89e4044-9b99-11e4-950f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3Oo9W0RdI That's pretty big news.

Copper anyone?

You do understand the carry on oil right now is insanely expensive right? So when you buy long term oil your ATM is NOT the current price of oil. It's a much higher price. That means your breakevens are much higher. The forward curve on oil right now is insanely expensive.

He is NOT buying cheap vega. He is buying or "trying" to buy flat skew. I don't even think he is aware of that. The p&l is coming from the skew, not the "vega".

Glad someone caught that.

It's amazing to read the ignorance on this forum. I mean I get it, most people on here have little in the way of pedigree. But still, I'm not a doctor but I do understand the knowledge they have and why they can practice medicine and I can't. LOL. Unreal.

Most software has a very difficult time modeling skew through both the passage of time and with movement of the underlying. You will find your expiration p&l in most cases will not even remotely resemble that which you see on your "what if" analysis window. And almost all your p&l is going to...

The real definition is "peak economic oil". We will never extract the last barrel of oil from the earth. But we will reach the last economic barrel soon enough. Come on guys, use your heads.

Damn brother OG, you are a market mover....FRO up 12% today. :)

Ditto that. OG is one of the few value add guys on here. Solid thread.

No DRYS?