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From time to time I like to recommend good books when I find them and I have one here for you guys. http://www.amazon.com/Expected-Returns-Investors-Harvesting-Rewards/dp/1119990726/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1434937368&sr=8-1&keywords=expected+returns It's a heavy book but very thorough...

I concur with what DT3 said. Gold popped on Yellen's dovish posture and kicked that can nice and hard into the next zip code. I doubt there will be any follow through on that though. The bond market smells a rat.

For refined products I do use 3pm central time primarily for continuity purposes. I want all the prices to be compared at the same time. I track the various calendar strips and the first 3 months on the outrights as well as the wti/brent spread, the cracks and the widowmaker for natty.

When dealing with products like energy and also FX (both tend to mean revert hard) you really want to lean on the number lines hard. For example, I still contend when gas or oil is in a strong number line confirmation, the follow through on A ups is there to the ATR. When we are in a choppy...

Let me say something else. Let me speak about the value of putting your thoughts out in the open. I've been on this site for 13 years. And over the years I've used this forum as a journal, news depository, a place to rant, a place to ask questions and a place to experiment. I wouldn't be...

Thanks logicaltrader. I'm happy that you found a lot of value here. Let me point something out. There are a lot of lurkers here. And a lot of people who would benefit from your posting. Anything you share will benefit numerous people who are doing exactly what you are doing but nobody is...

Here is some food for thought....the best way that I found to optimize intra-day trading was actually through longer term trading. In other words, take a core macro position and use the intra-day levels to optimize price. Example. Say you are long 2 ES on a 30 day number line trade with an...

Yes, time stops are more effective then price stops. As I mentioned earlier, time and variance are more important then price. And btw, I'm assuming most of you know this but I'll say it again just in case, our A levels and our ATR take into account volatility. I don't want you guys...

BTW, I've spent a great deal of time on this topic on this very thread buried somewhere deep in this thread. This volatility dynamic is why daytraders in general have a tougher hill to climb. Time is a constraint for them. Their stop is fixed and their upside is proportionally smaller then...

Variance is a measure of distribution. It's usually synonymous with risk and denoted as "sigma^2" or it's little brother sigma "standard deviation". One way to think about it is, it's working counter to what you are trying to do. You are trying to buy X at 100 and sell it at 110 and you...

Thanks Steve. Let me expand on that. Anyone (including Fisher) who has traded for a long time (more then 10 years) knows full well that markets are fluid and ever changing. There are no magical indicators or lines you can draw that will produce a long term expected profit above and beyond...

OK...thanks for the feedback. Maybe I wasn't being clear so I'll give an example. At this point, everyone on here either knows or doesn't know what they need to know from ACD itself so discussing A levels page after page makes no sense. When I use the word research, let me give you an...

I have to admit, it's a little disappointing there is not more discussion on this thread when I am not posting. There is close to 1000 pages of content here for you guys to share, discuss and improve upon. One of my goals of this thread was to use this thread to show you guys a way to look...

Are we all good on number lines? There were some questions awhile back on their usefulness or their purpose. Not sure if you guys hammered that out amongst yourselves or not. :)

Correlation is only useful over longer periods of time. Correlation has a variance just like everything else.

Time actually is very important in most financial models. This is because money has different values across time. For example the cost of money i.e. interest. Bonds are priced off of their present value of future cash cash flows. A $100 a year from now is NOT worth $100 today. It's...

Now Robert....this is in the ebook. LOL. You can enter at whatever level optimizes your risk/reward. So if you are leaning against a given A level and your exit is another A level, then choose the appropriate level that provides an attractive return on risk.

I didn't know you were Norwegian. I have a lot of Norwegian blood in me. :) Correct...confirmation.

Everything is relative. It's very rare to get useful info from nominal values.

I'm focusing on indices, rates, currencies and energy....more macro themed.