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Stocks....

This post is from sept 23. This is why relative value matters and why we track number lines. I mentioned avoiding the ES short which rallied 6% from this day (a lot of that came today) and the GBP/JPY short which I recommended in it's place is up only 1% over that time period. So if you...

Yeah the scenario I laid out several weeks back about a parabolic blowoff top early next year seems to be playing out perfectly. New all time highs are a few weeks away.

Good timing on that SPY confirmation. :)

This is the key point and why the number lines matter. You can get what looks to be very strong monthly A ups but with a neutral number line, the follow through is always suspect. That is why I was weary of the pop in WTI. It's very hard for me to get excited about neutral number lines.

This place really falls apart when I don't post. LOL. Sorry guys, I have been really busy. I'll have more time at the end of next week. Feel free to talk amongst yourselves. :)

Here is the problem. The bottom tax brackets are comprised of individuals who are inelastic to taxes meaning that you can raise taxes all you want on them and you can collect it. As you move higher, income becomes highly elastic and high wage earners can substitute away their wages into other...

Great article. Obviously someone who understands economics. I agree with most of what he said.

Actually not true. The Fed bought mortgage back securities to free up reserves for commercial banks so they could lend the money to you so you could spend it. Guess what? It didn't happen. The banks didn't lend and what little lending they did, consumers used it to pay down debt and not...

OK, we're still not getting this. Asset prices go up and they go down. In the long run, whatever excess spending is being derived from higher asset prices must be offset by future debt either through the conversion of the asset into cash to pay down the debt or via real debt through the...

A "few" people on this thread claim to have a "side". I don't have a side. I am not pro-fed or anti-fed. I'm not in anyone's camp. I'm looking at data. There is NO price inflation. There is ASSET inflation. These two things are NOT the same thing and no, one does not lead to the...

If the banks are not lending it, there is no "new" money. It sitting at the Fed as excess reserves. Look guys, you can define things however you want, do you see rising price levels out there? Of course not. Done and done. Don't tell me some shit that just because NFLX stock doubled...

It's all about relative choices. Don't mistake the Fed's patience currently in raising rates to not wanting to raise rates during high real inflation. The reason the Fed is holding off now is because there still is enough data out there to suggest another possibly deflationary downturn...

I watch the NOB more.

I will agree to that point that wealth creation via higher assets prices begets more wealth creation via higher asset prices. But luxury items like the ones you mentioned are not factored into inflation either. And yes, most of those items are bought specifically for their investment value...

No it does not. You are entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts. There is no evidence of rising equity indices leading to higher then normal spending. There is some weak causal relationship between housing prices and spending but that spending gets equally offset by the new...

Consumer sentiment does not cause inflation. You need to read more economic books. You are swinging at every pitch....and missing I might add.

Good lord, this website. Asset inflation does NOT lead to higher spending. Come on guys, you are suppose to be traders. Think about this shit. If you hold an asset that is appreciating, why would you forgo that appreciation to acquire something that most likely is depreciating. People...

There are so many mistruths in this post, not sure where to start. Inflation is not an increase in the money supply and increasing money supply does not directly cause higher prices. Spend a few minutes and think through the logic on that if you can.

What you are missing is interest rates are NOT near zero. The curve has been steepening big time. Over 98% of the market does not have access to zero rates. That is only the "discount rate". The other rates in the market are floating and they are floating higher! And no, asset...