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They bought real estate after the stock market popped but the Japanese gov't put a stranglehold on credit to kill that bubble shortly after the stock market popped in 1989. Some areas did still keep going up a little time after but yes, even real estate went down not because of deflation but...

OK, so just to address this question. In my humble opinion, there is probably 10 times as much upside with 1/4th the volatility trading stocks over futures. Why? Simple math. You have thousands of stocks to hunt for. With futures you have maybe 25 to 50 good products. When stocks...

Damn. There is some good stuff there. Hell even I like reading my old stuff. :)

Here is a great article that explains all the relationships in simple and precise terms. http://news.goldseek.com/SpeculativeInvestor/1331820420.php In answer to your question, don't think of Gold as one asset. As I mentioned before, gold priced in other currencies is actually performing...

Yes, almost all the standard economic models broke down in the 1970's primarily due to the magnitude of the oil shock. The 1970's is a horrible decade to gleam any meaningful casual relationship between factors.

I know the skit well. It's pretty funny and spot on.

OK, a better idea for you would be to buy Gold denominated in a weaker currency like the Yen. Don't own Gold in dollars. I have nothing against Gold. If interest rates were at 15% and on their way down I would buy Gold. This is where Gold was in the 1980's at 150 or 200 an ounce. I would...

Yes, it is in there. It has the same effect. If I owe you $10, then it's a liability to me and an asset to you. When you get the $10 back, you can buy junk with it. If I default, sure I save the $10 but now you don't get it. The effect is the same. The difference here is when banks...

We have to look at cause and effect here. Rates did not simply just go up. We had a supply shock in 1974 that echoed throughout the decade. Paul Volker took short term rates eventually to 15% to cut the head off of inflation and it worked at the expense of putting the US into a recession...

It's not an opinion,it's based on 1000 years of empirical data. But we'll leave that aside. One issue you have(and many here have) is you are making emotional decisions, not empirical ones. You hear this when people say things that have to deal with their hate for the Fed, the President...

The precious metals is a horrible way to play it. Since the time Jesus walked the earth, Gold has rallied maybe less then 1% of the time in a rising rate environment. Higher rates in the US will lead to a stronger dollar which will crush Gold and the miners even more. I can't think of a...

Sorry buddy. You come off as a lazy guy asking for handouts. Everything you asked on this thread could be found with some rudimentary knowledge of how these trades work but instead of learning it yourself you go off on a soap box about your "personal views" and then claim it's a risk free...

Here's the problem. You are lazy. You want some magical trade you can just sit on and think you are going to make a fortune. These trades you want to do are all very complicated and require a lot of understanding and a lot of research. You just want a trade fed to you and the markets...

My focus is based more on fundamentals in terms of areas of interest. And to clarify, I'm not saying I'm using fundamentals for my decisions, but simply to create a macro thesis. For example paying close attention to the oil related currencies with the huge weakness in oil.

I gave you two suggestions and that is my point. The fact that you are not understanding my suggestions is part of the problem.

When you think of the amount of money these hedge fund managers have made in compensation the last 5 years for doing absolutely nothing, it's really mind boggling. As the saying goes.....good work if you can get it.

No. One is costs. The other is the trade is not what you think it is. It's more then just a "directional play" on rates. There are a lot of moving parts and it's too hard for you to isolate the parts you don't want and trade only the part you do want. There are ways to do this trade in...

There are many ways to trade this, but they all have their pros and cons. One obvious one is shorting the forward curve. Another is swaps (which you can create synthetically btw in FX markets).

I don't think you understand how complicated this is. You want to make it sound so straightforward and easy. It's like when the VIX was at 11 and people on here thought it was free money to just buy the VIX at 11 because it had almost no downside and huge upside. Of course what they were...

Thanks for posting that. I don't track Coffee anymore so it's good to hear when others get confirms in products I'm not tracking. As a suggestion to others, feel free to post your 30 day confirms. We all don't track the same stuff and regardless of how you score your number lines, I find it...