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There is an old saying in trading: size begets size. That means large buyers are attracted to large sellers and vice versa. There are economic reasons for this. Generally speaking low volume moves price much more then high volume. Again, there are reasons for this.

Not quite. You have to adjust for the value of the dollar. In present value terms nat gas was much less then $1. And no, UGAZ is not going to recapture it's value. All these commodity ETF's lock in real losses on the contango that can equal 100% of the ETF value. When one buys this ETF...

Currency pegs....

ok, this is getting way off topic but if all the money disappeared from circulation via the gov't you and your collector are going to have a hard time finding me....let's get back on topic.

Target fast approaching in oil...

Getting close to my target...

The fact the widowmaker is in backwardation tells you just how much over supply we have.

No, nat gas is "usually" in backwardation. Again, the overabundance of supply is abnormal for nat gas although it appears to be the new normal for awhile now. And yes, the economic term we use and the one you can google is called "convenience yield". It's extra return one has by having the...

And who is going to enforce the payment? lol

You need to think this through your head a little more. Your lottery would not offer you a payoff at all. Just do some simple math. And also, volatility can absolutely help you. How would you make money without it. Think about it before you answer.

Then by your logic, no currency will have any value including your lottery tickets unless you are buying them denominated in coconuts.

No, there is no risk. The government can raise taxes to pay back their debt. There is zero counterparty risk by definition.

No, don't make this into an investment strategy, that is not his point. He is trying to get people to understand risk. And yes, before 1987, there was no pronounced put skew in the index market. After 1987....huge put skew. And to correct you, treasury bills are risk free. He is...

ok, a little history here. For the better part of the last 50 years, a large majority of the oil produced in the world was by OPEC nations. This means they controlled the price of oil because they had a cartel. Cartels can set the market price by withholding supply. Because of their...

You guys are missing his main point. He is not talking about being long vol in things that have a history of large moves where that historical precedent is embedded to some degree in option prices. He is speaking about things that "don't" have that precedent. Example, mortgage derivatives...

There are tons of good channels but they involve math and statistics. So not sure if that is what you are looking for but there are thousands of useful videos and all free.

Natty is backwardated much more then oil. Think about what it means to be in backwardation economically. How are oil and gas different. Here is hint: Elasticities...

It wouldn't go to $5. That is his fundamental argument or point.

Yeah both have been in steep contango for awhile. Economically speaking, when markets are over supplied they go into contango. You are discounting the front end of the curve to entice buyers because there is too much supply.

I think you are missing the point he is making.