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Really? Ever worked a day in a corporate?:banghead:;)

Underestimating volatility/noise, in combination with overestimating your fantasized edge

We are casted for the newest black-mirror episode, a large-scale psychological experiment/computer game. It's crazy indeed. Weird

Around 228 million, plusminus

That was exactly my motive :thumbsup:

From which guys do you think you got your second-hand lambo from? :cool:

I once tried to estimate the amount of damage - in financial terms - my failed adventure costed me (I was around 28 back then and ‘lost’ 4 years). Trying to estimate this with all the butterfly effects is ofcourse a rather foolish attempt, but if I had to put a number on it.. it would be that I...

You are asking for stats on some trading start about a decade ago :) In the end I didn’t loose too much because the EV<0 withheld me from trading too much. But ya know, living expenses didn’t paused either. What do you exactly mean by your last question?

No, this was I realisation I had when I was younger and somewhat more naive than now. I had quitted my job to go for daytrading. My friends slowly climbed the corporate ladder and bought bigger and bigger homes, while I was stuck and had to admit I failed. I also realized that trading needed a...

You forgot D) DaBagholder

Because it is 'easier' (lol) to 'forecast' a direction than a box (one variable less)? legit, I understand (not that everything I dont understand is not legit from my view ;)) I don't think that relationship is lineair, but get your point. That was what I meant with smoothing the returns...

I wonder if it would make any difference, in theory at least. You would pay indeed for the unlimited upside or drop to zero, but also these ‘tails’ are - in theory - priced accordingly, and perhaps when you are named Taleb even underpriced from your point of view. Spreads/boxes do help for a...

Thanks, appreciate it:thumbsup:

The general idea is to cap the downside (relatively more then the upside) trying to better the risk/reward and to size up a bit more. Or do you say it’s better to search it in diversified assets?

I think you can adjust this with the ratio of the long position versus the overwrite, keep delta in check. This will change ofcourse when underlying moves. And you want to roll the longer term options bc of spreads

True, but don’t calendars have a risk cap as opposed to ‘long stock’? Especially stocks, which can have gaps. Then one could say these gaps down and their P(x) are discounted in the long leg, the other side would be more smoothness of equity returns?

This was just a tip of mine to watch, 7 April at price 60, trade with no heat. One were I did not participate in myself:rolleyes: partly joking, partly sobbing :banghead::) If I may throw in a ticker, what do you think of LNTH? (Earnings first week of may) #178 Apr 7, 2024

For me it is powerful now, I work (remote) 8 it jobs simultaneously, earnings have increased 8-fold. I use generative deepfakes and conversational AI for simultaneous meetings.

This contract has an OI around 30.000 and last volume around 2600: GME240816C00125000

I did buy some volatility though at these levels, just to (imperfectly) offset the long positions. It will probably lose, but that’s oké