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What is your definition of a bear market?

And the E to P ratio is close to the low, has not confirmed this supposed improvement in the labor market(Improved 0.4% from its lows while the UR is off almost 2 full percentage points from the highs)

Yes I agree with this concerns. The issue is how to trade it. I have never been big on backtesting even though I have quite a bit of background in computer programming. But now I'm going to start to do that more on Excel and other programs I would try to find out whats the proper way to short...

Interesting paper http://www.brookings.edu/economics/bpea/Latest-Conference/stockwatson.aspx It seems that the bottom line of this paper is that they say indirectly that a high employment to population is good because GDP growth will be faster(As people can produce more by having more...

Effectiveness of LTRO: Market prices up, everything else still shitty http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/03/22/933491/ltrosophy-101/ Expectations can change on a dime and take market prices with it...

The immediate competing alternative for stocks are junk and IG corp bonds. And if you look at them, there is quite a bit of juice more than USTs

Does anyone know?I'm talking about the paid Real-time data from yahoo not the free BATS trades

A potential good short is salesforce.com CRM http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CRM+Key+Statistics Trades at 9 times sales, 13 book, has no earnings. Almost 200 times EBITDA But the edge lies on when to take the short and good exiting techniques, which is not an easy game to play

I don't remember the R and R definition but my own is: a bear market in gov bonds fueled by concerns of the country's public finances. A default does not necessarily have to happen

Yes, I think it's possible. I'm not sure that is likely though. Taking a pure probabilistic view, according to the RR This Time is Different view, sovereign debt crisis usually follow banking crises, that combined with the rare 120%+ debt levels which very few countries were able to sustain...

Very interesting letter. To me a key takeaway from all of this is: the drivers of the Budget Deficit have already announced their intentions. Gridlock is already making it impossible to keep the deficit where it already is as the economy improves, the pressures to reduce it are mounting A...

Fed futures plunge continues

what is the standard dev?

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Are you talking about the Inventory thing or the MOS gets Ethical Award?

The blow up will come the way it always come, one day people will look at the same headlines that are hitting every day and will interpret as bad and because the market will be down, the media will report things as being bad. People's experience is that things have changed dramatically but its...

btw, isn't Briefing Inplay free on yahoo? http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay

when do they expire?

Usually I check gaps, yahoo didn't report it so I thought there was none, I should have double checked with IB, costly mistake

The news came out on Newsedge at 10:30 sourcing from that website I put above. It was late like everyone else. At $250 a month, seems quite overpriced