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Kinda interesting fact. There are 7 members of the FOMC who think the FF should be at 2% or higher by year end 2014 Only 4 who think it should be unchanged that year. The 4 get their support from another 3 members who think it should be 0.5%. But the hawkish revolt is alive and well

VIX at 15. Just sold a 1% position I had on EWZ. Time to unrisk a bit

Yahoo stinks, the bid and ask are not NBBO(only the trades are real there). Get InvestorsHub data, same price but WAY better

I dunno, lots of people think contango is a sure money loser, taking the other side would be a sure money maker then Maybe fading contango represents some kind of risk premia that you earn by insuring people in the other side?I'm not sure it is but it is a good question

Now that I noticed, I might swap some of this cash and buy more bonds. I might be too underweight in bonds

Currently my exposure is 18% commodities(Mainly GLD with some Silver and a bit of GCC, this is part of my currency hedge basket as well, even though gold is not doing so well the Brazilian real is also doing terribly so it has been fine) 10% stocks(Mainly BRKB) 9% bonds(TLT) 11% money...

I've been thinking about this. The reason I spend so much time researching and thinking about long-term returns in different assets is related to this. My research indicates to me that stocks are in a secular bear, on avg the bull runs are shorter and bear declines deeper, so the weighting of...

Also, cash is also a risky bet. There are issues like -Inflation -Taxes on interest income(When the interest is even paid, not the case in most US brokers) -FX risk(For people who have a certain % of their spending in the form of imports and international purchases) Whether one realizes or...

An interesting situation happened in the Soros 'real time' experiment in his Alchemy of Finance book. I remember reading that he would trade around A LOT his positions, yet the bulk of his large returns came from something very simple, he was long assets with positive risk premiums during a bull...

Yes, there is some personal issues involved like risk tolerance. My personal situation I just find difficult to keep cash around instead of investing in well diversified basket of long-term investments that are likely to appreciate. I know that in 30 years I will thank myself for doing that even...

You can just index everything and not have to spend time on research

The VIX system buys at 30 and sells at 25. I corrected my post, I had written it was 35/15

Its important to remember that his results were done during the Great Moderation, now during the Great Deleveraging I suspect the numbers would go up(instead of 35, one would buy at 40 or maybe higher and instead of 15 one would sell at 20, etc) VIX was bellow 15 a few weeks back and is still...

I posted a while back about the Rosenberg ISM system that buys when it is at 40 and sells at 60 and how that could generate excess returns. I asked if anyone had seen numbers of returns using the VIX in a similar fashion I remembered VN done some calculations on that. Here are the results...

As far as credit growth is concerned, most of the credit during the 2000's went to housing, consumer spending, student loans not corporate spending. I haven't checked but I'm pretty sure the Fed flow of funds report back this statement

What is your evidence there is overcapacity in commodity production?I'm talking direct numbers

From what I understand about commodity cycles they happen because under investment for a couple of decades or so. This under investment needs to be closed for it to create a cycle in the other direction. There was a commodity "bull market" during the Great Depression. Comm prices dropped by...

There is a flaw with me being long the commodity country stocks though. Since the portfolio will be highly focused on the inflation theme I will be shaken out easily and might dump it as soon as I start to fear recessions and things like that(They should go down more than normal stocks). Its...

http://advisorperspectives.com/newsletters12/Why_a_60-40_Portfolio_isnt_Diversified.php This article shows the performance of a stock, bond, tips and commodity portfolio compared to a 60/40 equity bond portfolio. I'm not entirely sure their numbers are accurate(Its hard to get commodity...

Just cut my HKD position by 50%