Search results

I agree with the principle that PIGS dropping would be good for the EUR in the long-run but the panic outflow is what I'm betting on

Some people asked me why short EUR, my hunch was that the panic there would lead to capital outflows. But now I can articulate a bit better Lets say Greece drops out of EUR, depositors and people who hold financial assets(Lets call them DC Devalued Citizens) will face an overnight loss of...

Yes. But it would allow the local central banks to inflate and effectively do what most countries did in the Great Depression(Devalue against gold, in this case gold is the EUR/DM)

This suggests the MOST likely scenario is for the most troubled countries to leave the EUR unless the ECB reflates first which is unlikely

I found Hugh Hendry panel on the Milken institute quite informative. His thesis is that austerity will go on until the people just won't take it anymore and then the people will pretty much force the governments hands I checked Bernanke's book 'Essays on the Great Depression' to see how...

ZH is full of shit 95% of the time. But a few weeks back he wrote something that seemly is totally accurate. "QE3 depends on expectations of no QE3" or something like that Seems to capture the current situation quite well

GRPN also has SSFs. It was expensive but quite easy to short

Do you have an options play in this?

Not looking to short. Just trying to find out what are the implied probs of rates being say 100bps lower than right now many years from now. I mean call options on the price

Are there quotes on deep OTM call options in USTs for expirations longer than 8 years?

His figures are probably off due the Fed's 2014 pledge and some of his assumptions. But it does suggest that there is a significant implied prob that inflation will be very very low due japanification for a long-time. Specially looking a 30y USTs

Here is the blogger The article is from Aug 2010 http://behaviouralinvesting.blogspot.com.br/2010/08/bond-bubble-sterile-debate-on-semantics.html

Interesting comments by Hugh Hendry http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/91764042 I very much agree with him with his comments of deflationary fears being in the market as a result of the 2008 crisis and its aftermath being fresh in people's minds. I saw a blogger make a crude calculation of...

Short as % of float is 67%. Stock is up 100% pre-market on MSFT news. How to play it?

But even taking age consideration it's simply not possible that having free cash around is inferior to not having. Because you can always do nothing with it. This is not even an opinion, its mathematically irrefutable At the very least, having free/cheap cash around should save the trader...

Let me correct I mistake I posted. The cost of financing a gold futures position for 1 year is a little over 1%(not a previous completely off figure I used, I have no idea how I didn't see that). The futures are cheaper than the ETF (GLD with 0.4% expense ratio) 2 months out. At 3 months is...

You make a number of good points. It seems that you are correct in this regard. I would like to know where you got your correlation data between gold with stocks and commodities with stocks and how far back it goes

Furthermore he doesn't need to invest in yields that are 'mispriced', we are talking about a float like cash, all it needs to happen is for it to return 0.01% or more that it already adds to networth gains every year. Even if say German yields are 1% but the correct theoretical price should be...

I just thought of something else the currency risk of the foreign gov bonds can be controlled by shifting the share of domestic/foreign stocks in the stock portion up to the desired level of the investor. So the argument 'but there is additional FX risk' won't do it

Also, with regards to domestic default, if that is really a concern he can simply invest in foreign short-term bonds and get additional diversification due that. I will not answer the argument of 'but yields are low' you keep making. 0% rates is NOT the norm its the exception. Your long-term...