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The April meeting is usually at the month's end, so the decision on April 2015 won't affect the contract settement. Essentially the market is pricing TWO full hikes by March 2015. Seems overpriced by AT LEAST one hike, probably two

Most in the FOMC thinks fed funds will END 2015 at 1% or lower. My contract is for April of 2015. If it ends at 1% there won't likely be any loss in these contracts because they will probably start the hikes by mid year or year end The vast majority thinks it will end at 1.5% or lower, if the...

This is my first time buying fed futures since 2011. I'm not playing as big as I used to but maybe I should. It seems that the rate panic has the market disconnected from the Fed guidance and likely path of rates. Frankly I'm just a little scared here. The last 2 hike cycles the Fed did 300 bps...

I agree with Bill Gross, the front end of the yield curve is mispriced here. Specially after today's sell-off. I'm long ZQJ5 Yes, the fed wants to taper but they do not want interest rates being on the moon, its going to slow down the economy and hurt the recovery. I believe they will have to...

His track record is still among the best over the last decade. Everybody makes mistakes

If you want to short overpriced options safely you have to buy way OTM "garbage" options for insurance against a 87/flash crash scenario ex: if you think the AAPL 480 put is overpriced, you can short that but buy the 400 or something like that. That way you know the most you can lose This is...

I use one of these http://amzn.to/19NAKU8

His stock picks have beaten the market by a large margin. He is as great stock picker, its his hedging strategy with falty technicals that have undermined him Look at the purple line in his returns, thats his returns without the put buying

His style is not for everyone because it does have a ton of variability but over long periods it has to work. Otherwise you are saying valuation and fading extreme sentiment trends don't matter, which is of course ridiculous. His technical work is what made his result be worse than it should...

Did you catch Ackman on Charlie Rose the other day? He talks about how he was short MBIA for 7 years and was frequently criticized in the media. Stock eventually went from $70s to $3 and CDS exploded If you think there will be a VW type situation you are probably better off being way OTM calls...

Hussman is underperforming because since he started there were 2 bull markets and 2 bear markets, it just so happen that one of the bull ones were a mini bubble that went far ahead than anyone expected. If there is a bear in the next 12 months he is likely to outperform again

This is nice and might enhance liquidity a bit but for clients at a good broker it wont matter much. ARCA pays a bigger rebate than NSDQ and allow native hidden orders as well (icebergs too), I see no reason to route NSDQ instead of ARCA

I do think there is solid theoretical justification for it. If you look at the inputs, they are things like sentiment behavior (effectively putting the principle of being fearful when others are greedy into numbers), Shiller valuation (and markets mean revert by nature) and market...

Just couldn't help it, sold all my AAPL at $490s. Expecting a bear market when this mini bubble pops. I might get to buy AAPL cheaper. If it runs without me so be it, but I don't want to regreat not having taken this nice exit

"AAPL is going to $500" trade getting really crowded now, I think I might exit it tomorrow as the Icahn news gets spread around and the funds buy the stock. I might get to buy back cheaper in the future

The Fed's portfolio is not marked to market which is ironic given that Bernanke said they are not monetizing the debt because they are buying with the intention to sell down the line. Any bank would be forced to keep the bonds in the 'trading' portfolio (as opposed to the hold to maturity book)...

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130722a.png http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130722.htm I understand Hussman is not very well liked by a lot of folks at ET but how is that different from the value investors that got scorned during the 90's as their methodologies underperformed the...

It takes way more skill to win a point in Wimbledon than to put a winning trade

Shareholder Yield book being given out for free. Kinda like Broken Markets last year, it is for a limited time i think http://amzn.to/195cRrc

The problem is the "inherent properties of the mind" part, outside the open and close hours traders tend to interact more with HFTs and less with hedge funds, big money and retail flow. Things get more noisy, unpredictable and random. Even the open and close haven't been all that great when...