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Switched short from QQQ to IVV. IVV is the less liquid S&P500 etf. this might flash crash if there is a correction in october. I also added a bit today. still saving bullets to the Fed pop thursday

"In our view, the biggest issue for the bulls is the overhead supply. The SPX can certainly rally from here, as initial resistance doesn’t come in until 1993 (1-2% above current levels). Getting above that and there are another 40-50 handles of room to 2040 (3-4% above current levels). That...

That said, I like the approach of having many small swing shorts. I do that all the time but I only do these when I know that the chance of a squeeze is really small.

The Brazilian bounce is underway, government is proprosing tax hikes and spending cuts to generate a primary fiscal surplus next year. Stocks and the currency are up. If they were smart, they could combine that with FX intervention and a rate hike. This would be a 'slap in the face' of momentum...

The thing is, there is another way to play these. Which is to only get involed when these trash stocks are overextended and time them well in the shorts. You get the benefit of being able to play them bigger (and hence, you wont need a lot of these to make more than many small shorts) and the...

I believe they paid out 10% a year in dividends in this period

Good points

Although upon a little reflection this thing seems quite fishy. "Based on one dollar invested on June 30, 1986, index growth through December 31, 2011 was: 1153 percent for the PUT Index, 830 percent for the BXM Index, 807 percent for the S&P 500 Index, and 368 percent for the CLL Index.". 1...

Is there an ETF for that? This looks like an interesting investment for day traders. Most good day traders report that bear markets are usually good years for their trading beause of the volatility. Being invested in one of these could provide an interesting hedge for them. Either they make...

I'm not referring to just returns but risk adjusted returns that are above similar investment opportunities. I'm not really well read in options but it appears to me that some folks like to consistently sell index options on the belief that on average it will be a good bet. It probably is but...

From the way she sounded in her 2014 interview, I'd be shocked if she didn't lose big last month.

You should never put yourself in a position where such liquidation could happen

Brazilian stocks are even up on the day.

Surprising strength in the Brazilian Real today. went from down 2.5% to down 0.8% now. I noticed that in the past week or so there has been a significant amount of bearishness by amateurs i know in the real, also the currency was going down no matter what the news was, that seem to have stopped...

I added a bit on Qs after the Tepper comment. I think he is right that we gone from dips being bought to rallies being sold. I just wish I had done a better job of shorting those rallies. Because I didn't I will remain small on the shorts and hopefully there will be a Fed induced rally of some sort

The big risk to brazil is that if investors globally do become more risk averse (as I expect), interest rates on brazilian debt will raise and this will put Brazil in a downward fiscal spiral. The the old self-fulfilling prophecy (or reflexitivity/multiple equilibria) issue. If interest rates...

I will say this. To me, the a good way to short brazil is to short BRL/AUD-NZD-CAD (basket), I was in the process of considering putting this trade on but this news will make this 'spread' blow wider and I'm not a fan of chasing the trade. I was hoping there would be a relief rally to get in...

Shorted small QQQ at the close today. I'm hoping it rises so I can short more. The idea is that the markets will face an October panic I'm just using QQQ because I day trade SPY (and today I did a terrible job at that) and I dont want to get the positions mixed up

Yes. I would say it would be extremetly unlikely a 50 bps to start. 1937 paranoia, central banker risk aversion plus a number of other reasons

As far as the stock market goes I don't think it will matter a ton over the medium-term. The thing is, the US stock market become a large Fed induced momentum trade. As traders we know how momentum trades workout, eventually they turn and the move in the opposite direction is just as...