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The thing is, I don't even think HLF is a good short. I believe the odds favor the bear thesis (with maybe a 60-70% chance) but the bull thesis has a lot of legs to it. In particular, the chance of a buyout in case the business start to struggle. So even if the bears are right, they might still...

I mean, at the very least, it should give you a stop when a Harvard graduate Latino regulator comes out and say you are wrong. At the very least, you spend a few days reworking your thesis, rechecking your facts, assesing things from a different point of view, reading articles, etc. You don't...

John Hempton is a weird dude He calls the Ackman HLF thesis a racist one and now calls the FTC a tool for racists HF managers for agreeing with him. Yet, the FTC is chaired by Edith Ramirez, a woman of Latino heritage. The League of United Latin American Citizens praised her appointment a few...

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/07/15/bonds-arent-as-wretched-an-investment-as-they-seem/

With regards to VRX, Ackman came out saying (and he has access to inside information) that the company has a fair amount of assets ($10b) that most people don't even know exists, he said again that the phone keeps ringing and there is demand for these assets. He said the company is likely to...

"104. Regardless of the number of so-called “discount buyers,” it is clear that collectively they could account for only a small percentage of the volume of Defendants’ products sold in the United States. Even using a grossly overstated measure of “discount buyers”—that is, counting as “discount...

"103. In short, many of the Distributors whom Defendants would expressly or impliedly characterize as solely “discount buyers” are, in fact, pursuing the business opportunity."

VW and other big squeezers were totally different situations. Completely unexpected and they had a significant amount of cornering in the float. Icahn is doing his best to do that this time but his moves have to be telegraphed, which sends the antecipators in and they will have no problems...

If Ackman turns out to be wrong and most of the sales are indeed from distributors who want to consume themselves, HLF numbers will prove that and I don't think he will have any problem doing an expensive block cover to get out. The people who are expecting a giant squeeze will be dissapointed...

I suspect the FTC avoided the pyramid accusation because they company wouldn't play ball and they would have to spend years in court fighting them (and in the mean time, if it was a pyramid, people would continue to get hurt). Since HLF is a global company with deep pockets, they decided to...

Since I own PSH, i thought about writing some random thoughts on HLF. This FTC action removes one of the scenarios that I was worried about, that Ackman was wrong and HLF would sue him for damages and try to get billions out of him (just the lawsuit could send his investors fleeing). Now with...

I'm covering the SPY short on this pullback. Will use gold and bonds to hedge (I added some to gold yesterday). The idea of the SPY short was short the top of the 1900-2100 range and cover lower. Now after the breakout, it makes no sense to fight it

I started to short some Feb 2017 fed futures. I want to hedge a bit my gold and bond positions. Its a cheap hedge because the market is quite skeptical of a rate hike. I wish I started earlier as I could have gotten better prices.. Looks like the Brexit thing is being shrugged off and US data...

I warned you many times in the past that using options instead of the underlying would increase your trading costs. With portfolio margin or margin from a prop firm, you can mimic the leverage effect you get from options. The advantage is that you wont pay bigger spreads from the options and you...

http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-strength-is-about-the-equity-risk-premium-2016-7 This has some interesting data that can explain some of what is going on. Especially after the Brexit sell-off. The sell-off lead to a rush to risk-free assets, pushing their yields down. Then stocks...

My strategy this year has been to be long a resonable amount of risk assets (anywhere between 10-50%) but holding plenty of hedges in case the market took a dive lower as investors mood changed due a number of risk factors. For these hedges I favored US bonds (with more duration as stocks went...

Not saying UST bonds wont go higher, they very well could. But the spread over bunds, JGBs are far as I know is actually quite high now. So on a relative basis they are not doing as well, for a reason. And that reason has to do with the belief that the Fed will do a better job to anchor...

The counter point to that is that the Fed is a lot more aggressive than the ECB and BOJ. They will start up the printing presses again if inflation doesn't pick up and/or NGDP continues to fall

prob is, I use this with ARCA and NYSE all the time

most routes have this. I believe EDGX doesn't have it but i could be wrong