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A principle that can be perhaps inferred from this is, the shittier a country looks, the more likely that the currency is undervalued. Even though the nominal FX rates might fall, in all likelihood there will be counter-balancing factors such as higher interest rates, low CAPE ratios in the...

I'm not saying rushing out to buy property like that makes sense, looking at my database its clear that there a mini cycles in inflationary economies. Periods where things beat inflation by a wide margin and periods where things lag inflation big time, you want to be buying after a few years...

Goes to show, even though the BR currencies were free falling in the FX market almost every day, they were STILL undervalued if you took into account the extra returns you could achieve in some asset classes (stocks, real estate and perhaps some bonds). I wonder if that is not the case right now...

I'm running the numbers in my Brazil study and the results have been quite surprising Here are some finds (numbers might change in the future, if I detect problems in the data) -The real returns of simply holding USD during Brazil's hyperinflation were negative. You had to buy assets (stocks...

Going to switch 2/5 or half of my position in FNMA, FMCC to FNMAS. FNMAS is the most liquid preferred stock, this will give me more robustness for different scenarios/plans they can implement with the GSEs

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-american-dream-is-fading-and-may-be-very-hard-to-revive-1481218911 Here is the risk to the 'Trump will be good for stocks' trade Capital (corporations) share of GDP pie is at record highs (as seen through profits as % of GDP). While labor has not done as well...

Man, I really fucking hate short selling. I'm trying to become more of a swing/position trader these days as opposed to a short based daytrader, which I have done for 4 years. For swings and position trades I will take a short here and there but most of the time its a long based game (its a bull...

Ackman raises a possibility about VRX that the shorts didnt seem to have considered. That Pearson went "crazy" starting in 2015. He talks about how he overpaid for Salix and the whole Philidor thing happened. So now there is one more way the shorts can be wrong and face a huge loss. That the...

US-T

Looking back this year, my biggest mistake have been not stepping in and buying when it looked scary to buy. I bought and sold a good chunk of BRKB right at the lows of $125. It seems like forever ago but back then it was starting to get to a consensus that the US was going to face a recession...

Paul Singer from Elliott goes from saying Trump will lead to a depression to being optimistic in his administration. When will other folks who consider themselves so smart will realize that they missed something with Trump? Probably within a couple years but by then it will be too late But I get...

"The European Central Bank is expected to say on Thursday that it will buy large quantities of government bonds and other assets for longer than initially planned, an attempt to protect the eurozone economy from an increasingly unpredictable political landscape."...

I love the folks who say 'I'm skeptical of all of this, I need to see the policy specifics'. By the time their get their specifics, everything will have repriced 20% higher/lower

" They project the U.S. budget deficit, as a share of GDP, may rise from a Bloomberg median estimate of 3.2 percent in 2016 to just 3.5 percent in the first few years of a Trump administration, representing an annual revenue loss of a modest $100 billion. "What we can say is that the proposed...

Greece is doing well since my purchases. Today was a good day for the Daal index

I was told a few months ago they couldnt buyback stock because they had inside info in some of the companies they own. But I suppose they can time the buybacks for times when they are not in possesion of inside info. An instant 20% again from buybacks is nothing to sneeze at

"Discount from NAV Pershing Square Holdings’ discount from NAV has increased substantially over the last eight months and was more than 20% as of November 30, 2016. As an investor’s return is a function both of underlying NAV performance and price versus NAV, we find the current discount...

They judged the urgency and not the merits because you havent given both sides the ample time they need to build their case/defend themselves. Its part of due process to give people the time that they need to defend themselves, not rush them into a decision where they havent had almost any time...

I watched the session (our Supreme Court decisions are televised live, I know, sounds crazy right) and the arguments, it pains me to say it, actually make sense. They weren't judging the merits of the case but rather, if the urgency of the order was justified. They judged that it was not...

In an evil way, this guy is the ultimate example of why you should never quit. Not even a Supreme Court order removing him from his post, the threat of his arrest, a government official trying to notify him of the order got him to think he lost. He manuvered politically, broke the law and won