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  1. O

    Does Probability exist?

    Apparently this thread is more about Genius!
  2. O

    Does Probability exist?

    Genius! No doubt! Better than JH!
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    RIP Jack Hershey 81 Died on 11/3/2014

    I believe, probably most of those followers who are able to Read and Comprehend JH's materials must be genius, as you said!
  4. O

    Does Probability exist?

    Very well put! Perhaps LTCM also encountered two other unexpected/ untested critical factors: Cornering the markets unknowingly, and Reflexivity by the unified actions from other major competing players. Just 2 cents!
  5. O

    Can anyone explain what this guy was doing?

    My guess is the original sin was the IPO listing of exchanges! Now they have to allow not just HFT but also spoofing in order to make more and more money year after year to satisfy their investors as well as the security of their jobs. Perhaps the ideal and best scenario beneficial to many...
  6. O

    Can anyone explain what this guy was doing?

    Q http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-22/why-is-spoofing-bad- Finally, what about spoofing and the flash crash? I obviously don't think that Navinder Singh Sarao caused the flash crash. For one thing, he turned off his spoofing algorithm a few minutes before the crash. Also, as Craig...
  7. O

    Does Probability exist?

    Practically, Yes! Perhaps two perspectives: A. 95% traders in long run. http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/95-are-losers.265548/ B. 75% trades in long run. (no matter what back-test results historically.) Probably due to a combination of many complex issues/ causes!
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    UK trader arrested for May 2010 U.S. Stock market flash crash

    Too many questions to be asked and to be answered!
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    What have you learned from "Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?"?

    http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-363 The thread was designed with a purpose - If anytime you find nothing to read on ET, then you will think of this thread!
  10. O

    What have you learned from "Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?"?

    http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-87#post-2395728 I wonder whether selling options is a good idea! No wonder he's now gone!
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    UK trader arrested for May 2010 U.S. Stock market flash crash

    Q http://www.nasdaq.com/article/flash-crash-investigators-likely-missed-clues-20150426-00037 Mr. Sarao appears to have been on the CME's radar since at least 2008, when two employees from the exchange visited him at his trading station in the offices of Futex Global in London, according to...
  12. O

    UK trader arrested for May 2010 U.S. Stock market flash crash

    Perhaps a simple solution would be called "Pattern Spoof Trader", just similar to : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pattern_day_trader Q Pattern day trader is a term defined by FINRA to describe a stock market trader who executes 4 (or more) day trades in 5 business days in a margin account...
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    Can anyone explain what this guy was doing?

    "Can anyone explain what this guy was doing?" Probably Nobody would have foreseen the outcome of the series of chain actions this time, or next time, beforehand! If anyone can, (s)he would hold the (short) position for a much longer time during the day rather than closing it so quickly as...
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    RIP Jack Hershey 81 Died on 11/3/2014

    JH - great mind, unique view, and great vision - contributed a lot in trading systems theory to academia. Really great soul indeed! RIP JH.
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    UK trader arrested for May 2010 U.S. Stock market flash crash

    And he is not allowed Close to the Internet!
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    Can anyone explain what this guy was doing?

    Q http://blog.themistrading.com/the-uk-flash-crash-spoofer-case-brings-more-questions-than-answers/ The UK Flash Crash Spoofer Case Brings More Questions Than Answers 22 April, 2015 flashcrash3 After reading both the Department of Justice and the CFTC cases against the UK Flash Crash spoofer...
  17. O

    Can anyone explain what this guy was doing?

    Q http://blog.themistrading.com/where-were-the-regulators/ Where Were The Regulators? 23 April, 2015 nanexflash “On average, on the Example Price-Impact Days, Defendants used the Layering Algorithm to place hundreds of orders for tens of thousands of contracts that were modified thousands of...
  18. O

    Can anyone explain what this guy was doing?

    Thanks. Now my guesses are: 1st, flesh crashes will happen again and again mainly due to most trading nowadays is done non-stop by robots/ algos, for various reasons. 2nd, even HFT and spoofing can be stopped or rectified, but other new robots/ algos will take place in the future. Traders...
  19. O

    Can anyone explain what this guy was doing?

    I hope you don't mind my asking. The guy's unacceptable pattern of placing artificial orders should have been noticed/ detected for long long time. He should have been warned and stopped this style of orders years ago! Why suddenly now big issue?
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