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My guess is if we include also tail risk, we would cover the whole spectrum of probability events. Sometimes odds could be more useful than probabilities. http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/mathematics-of-betting-odds-vs-probability-vs-rrr.288574/...

Survey results based on 250+ respondents: (page 157 of Tail Risk Hedging by Bhansali)) Who was happier? 1. Investor A. - 50% 2. Investor B. - 30% 3. No difference. - 20%

My apology, if you think in this way!

How about this quest: (I will later provide the source for you to find answer.) " In a recent survey, I asked participants the following questions: Investor A invested 60% in equities and 1% in tail hedges. Investor B invested 50% in equities and nothing in tail hedges. The equity market...

I think I am a bit slow in learning the graphs. 1. I think you should label each axis on the graphs for easy understanding and reference. Maybe your focus of this thread about Probability is for something else completely, such as forecasting directions, position management, and others. But...

I guess you need to explain the graph to us first. Normal distribution is Not quite applicable to trading reality in terms of risk management. Perhaps the most important thing practically related to probability distribution would be its tail risk that would kill many traders' accounts...

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/anyone-gave-up-trading-for-a-living.289259/page-8#post-4080409 I don't quite follow the figures as maths is always my weakness...

Please don't misunderstand a thing: Actually I myself do enjoy your posts! A lot of fun indeed! I think ET needs you!

Exactly! Facts: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/best-european-countries-to-trade-from.288687/page-5

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/best-european-countries-to-trade-from.288687/page-5 lol Perhaps ask also his previous nicknames on ET in the last 10 years before the current one!

Thanks!

Q Generally, people would think that it's better to have more winning trades than losing trades but if there is a black swan, a single losing trade would kill. To against this thought, we would like to catch the black swan by normalizing the losing trades. More losing trades mean the system...

" Do Option Sellers Have a Trading Edge? " http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/do-option-sellers-have-a-trading-edge.283946/

My guess is once defining an instrument, "Points" should be right for performance measures, based on an implied convention to describe how much "Movement" that a trader produced (positively or negatively) for a trade, disregarding what leverage strategy, options strategy, money management...

Q Investor rush to artificial intelligence is real deal http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/019b3702-92a2-11e4-a1fd-00144feabdc0.html Silicon Valley loves a new fad. To judge by the spate of fundraising by start-ups in recent weeks, it has found one in an idea that is more than half a century old...

"We cannot solve problems by using the same kind of thinking that caused the problem. - Einstein" “Here's to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers. The round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things differently. They're not fond of rules. And they have no respect...

Barry Eichengreen Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley; Pitt Professor of American History and Institutions at the University of Cambridge; and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His newest book, Hall of...

Very very Wrong indeed! $500K/per is a bit closer!

Last time I checked my dictionary, Mean and Meaningful are two different words!

Me Too!