Thanks cd. Yeah that spike we had a few weeks ago showed up on there and subsequently came in. I would probably be more inclined to look at the OTM call skew to see how steep it's getting. Those options have a small weight in the OVX calculation but they are very revealing about the...
King, you don't want to simply look at the mean reversion target in isolation. The question you have to ask yourself and the question most traders NEVER ask themselves is what do I have to "risk" to get my target price. Sure, that 95 looks juicy as it has been a long term mean. But you might...
OK, so a couple of things here. My 30 day confirmed on 8/27 at 18.00. I have no idea how you are doing your number line and that is not to say you are doing anything wrong. But I've modified my number lines quite a bit from Fisher. Again, not to say there is anything wrong with how he does...
So the way we look at this through the lens of ACD is we review all the various time cycles and A levels and put a picture together. We are in a confirmed QTR A up but we are at the end of QTR so we can discount this data to some degree but make note of the fact that we have held above the QTR...
I believe London markets open at 2am Central time but it gets tricky with daylight savings time as they shift about 2 weeks after us.
For the purpose of daily data I use midnight as the end of the day. Since FX is 24 hours, as long as you are capturing the 24 hour volatility I don't think...
What is wrong with you? Seriously? This case is over. OVER! Move on with your life. Do you know how many black kids are killed in this country every day? Why don't you start threads on all of them? Your fake concern is such bullshit for if you truly deeply cared you would point out all...
Just want to point out some key levels here in the metals. Gold after having a huge run has pulled back to the top of the QTR A up. When markets take out A levels they have a tendency to retrace back to them. This often provides excellent entries and tight stops. It also happens to be in the...
I personally have noticed volatility to be higher in the London session for ALL pairs more often then not. You can try having different number lines but I do think it will get messy and it makes it hard to compare apples to apples.
Here were my comments on AAPL on 9/7. Sure enough, we are testing the monthly A down. The critical piece on the above comments is the word "if". I would NOT buy AAPL here if we confirm on the monthly A down. That means we need to get backup above 474 tomorrow. If this level holds, you have...
S&P up 3% since call, X up 20% since call. Can I start celebrating yet? :)
We pretty much hit the QTR Target today, or got close enough for me to flatten the position a little selling some premium. I was not expecting a 20% move in 7 days so we need to consolidate a little here.
Well, I get very involved with the options. So depending on a lot of factors, I'll sell some calls into the report. When we get big moves regardless I'm usually selling premium into the move since I'm already long DITM calls. This allows me to stay with a position longer. Of course X could...
Again, with the usual disclaimer here, this is just how I do it because my mind sees patterns better when looking at relative value vs absolute value so I try to normalize data as much as possible. This might not work well for others. So just play around with it.