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No, I use the number line for the spread.

I think he is referring to the default swaps and not simply a bet on the convexity of the Japanese rates and unfortunately the retail guy does not have access to those. You know, in that book the "Big Short" there was those small guys who started a fund for the sole purpose of getting a letter...

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/7kFcDKBpdII" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Late Christmas present...

Actually, here is what I "think" your dad might have been referring to and it HAS hurt many a trader. Let's say your dad has 100k and makes 100k in profits in 2012 and let's keep the math simple and say he owes 50k in taxes on his trading. Then in 2013, let's say dad losses all 200k in the...

NO!!!!!! I made this mistake as well in the beginning. Do not ASSUME anything. Last year rbob got destroyed during the summer driving season and rallied all during the previous winter. The only fundamental thing you need to be deeply aware of is, as we move through the winter and summer...

If I add a new product, I go back and get the number line for the entire year. The good news is if it's in February I only go back to Jan 1st unless there is less then 30 days of data in which I will go back to the following year to fill up an entire 30 day span. The bottom line is, the...

Yes and no. Yes, in that as vol increases the A levels get wider and therefore it gets harder to confirm new A levels. This is true of every time frame. When monthly ranges expand, each new monthly A level going forward gets harder to confirm until the ranges begin to contract again. But no...

Come on dude, this is amateur hour. You should know better. You've been on ET too long for this crap. The whole BS of making a bet is you are trying to make sure the other side doesn't bet. A gentleman would post his screen shot and call it a day. But there is no screen shot. I understand...

Let's bet 100 billion dollars. I'll let Don Bright hold my money. I trust him.

He put the thing on for next to nothing. The 80/90/100 fly would have set him back a few bucks.

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The vol curve is reflecting every dimwit and his uncle who were short the naked calls and are now getting squeezed. In fact, the entire vol curve is showing that across all the months. The fly traded. I'm not trying to sell anything. Yeah the dude called a print that one can pull up on time...

My info said the trade was crossed and printed later. No such trade executed on the exchange. Customer bought the fly OTC and crossed it. Largest single print today was by a customer who do did the Jan 65/105 conversion for an .80 credit 1500 times.

He is full of shit. No such trade took place. Customer is NOT a net buyer of those calls. Nothing to see here, move along kids. ,

This is 100% false. Customer traded the 85/90/95 fly for .25 debit. Nice trade actually. I might follow him.

It's not real money though. I just don't understand why one would "papertrade" this as there is nothing to be gleamed from the result.

Yeah exactly. I never understand this. Why not just OD on a bottle of sleeping pills. Is it really necessary to paint the sidewalk? Same thing for these people who jump in front of trains. Why traumatize so many people just to end your life.

Heating Oil is going to confirm on the 30 day today for the first time in 6 months. The heating oil crack looks very attractive here.

If you are long as most the world is and you are sitting on huge capital gains, why on God's green earth would you sell before Jan and give up 50% of your profit if you are in a high tax state and top federal bracket when you can sell in Jan and possibly have those gains offset by losses from a...

But guys who are long on a sim don't get the free money. The rest of us who actually do this for a living are doing just fine. Let us know when you go live dude.