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Actually nat gas does have a lot of stuff to trade against, unfortunately not for the retail guy. For example nat gas is spread against coal since it competes with coal for electricity generation. The official spread is called "the dark spread" or "dirty spread". Then you have the "spark...

I'm going to have to get back to you on that. Really swamped with work. I mainly track the 5 day on the bond futures vs TLT as TLT misses the price action of the 7:30 eco reports.

You will get ZERO interest. Here is my recco. Open an account at IB and trade single stocks futures. You get 5 to 1 overnight I believe and you can hold these for 2 to 6 weeks.

Yes, I meant 30 day confirmation. I do my number lines different then Fisher. Mine are better. :)

Fyi, crude oil confirmed for me on the 25th of last week. Confirmation plus Geo-poltics means good price action. :)

Actually I think it's a great spreaders market. I find the correlations on the front strips to be very high against flat price with the bonus of added convexity. The issue here is the storage spreads. These are the ones that kill people and have very little correlation to flat price because...

Interesting article that breaks down the action in natural gas over the last two weeks in case anyone was sleeping and wasn't aware we had the largest volatility moves in history for the product. Carnage on the Natural Gas Market By Matthew Philips February 27, 2014 The natural gas...

Dude, I don't trade equity index futures. Give it a break already.

When does the soul searching start?

That makes better sense. But keep in mind, you were short a front month call that started off OTM and you were long a DITM Aug call which meant that you had significant long deltas driving the p&l, not necessarily vol. I mistakenly thought you were long an OTM Aug call along with your short...

Yeah, you are missing a lot. But that is OK. There is room to learn. I'm not sure if you got your prices right. You are saying you "lost" money on the Aug VIX call? So your April went up by 220 and your Aug call went down by 20? How is that a hedge? I think may have gotten the wrong...

Sle, if someone asks you a specific question and they sincerely are looking for help, I think a specific answer is better then broad. If we are speaking in general theory and tossing ideas around, that is different. By no means am I saying you are obligated to help the guy, but sometimes on...

Sle, either you or I are missing something here. He is NOT putting on a spread trade as to my understanding to manipulate the vol curve, he already HAS the short exposure and he is using the back end as an emergency tail risk hedge. And you think that is a good idea? LOL. I mean look dude...

I didn't say they would not go up. But they will absolutely move less and that is an economic cost to you. Especially if your reason for being long is to actually "capture" a spike in vol that is suppose to "hedge" the assault on your short exposure in the front. Good luck with that. LOL...

Those AUG options are NOT volatility hedges. In fact, as the OP pointed out, they could actually go DOWN in value with a rise in the vol on the short end (backwardation). Hell, if we got a pop in the VIX in front, I would likely be a huge seller of Aug vol.

Honestly, getting a license, any license, is by FAR the easiest part of trading. Not that I'm a big fan of licenses. But again, I repeat, there has to be "some" economic motivation for firms to exist in this space. Prop firms are not a public utility. And option prop firms need even greater...

Yeah I'm always surprised how few people talk about trading the strips in oil and gas. I mean it's not like they are institutional products. Both IB and TOS offer them. They are liquid, trade very orderly and the margins can't be beat. For the life of me I don't understand how anyone could...

Vegas needs to get an NFL team. I knew what a combine was when I was 7 years old, but I then again, I was one of those weird guys that liked watching football. :) How is the health holding up Don?

Well, they did exist. A lot of them did. It's just not economically viable to operate a JBO anymore.

Usually there is a catalyst that breaks the correlation. So you have to pay attention to what's going on in the market. Sometimes you have to play market detective. Also look for big volatility moves to signal the beginning or end of a corollary period.