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Gold is still not interesting. Every product has an opportunity cost. There are better things out there to be focusing on right now like the Yen complex, the grain complex, even cotton and coco.

I'm trying to help. I have no why you transitioned into dick mode. I gave you a simple answer. You rejected it and wanted proof. I've spent the better part of 12 years on this site helping people. I'm trying to share my experience. You want a simple answer where there isn't one...

Alpha is zero sum, index is not. If you are looking for value, you are going to have to work for it. If you just want an index return, then you spread your money around and get index. And by index I don't mean the S&P500, I mean it more in a broad sense. There is nothing to prove or not...

I'm not trying to "teach" you anything or get you to "believe" me. I'm asking for YOU to do the work. Don't take my word for any one else's I refer you to on the internet. Just learn this stuff on your own. I've done the work. I've spent close to 20 years doing the work. I can't give...

I know that is what you're asking and that is what I'm trying to tell you. Using oil as your trigger is not a good idea. Oil stock prices are correlated to their actual operating margins, not the price of oil. For many companies, their margins have actually improved with lower oil prices...

When you analyze correlation, you need to understand what's affecting each coefficient. It's easy to make the assumption that that is A goes down and B goes down together that B is going down "because" of A. There are actually endless variables inbetween A and B you are not accounting for...

Yeah oil companies are notorious for being hard to trade. You really have to understand the complexities in their revenue stream. For example, most E&P are valued based on proven reserves they hold as assets. Well the numbers they report are no where in the vicinity of being accurate. If...

Almost zero correlation. But it really depends on the "type" of stock. E&P vs a refiner, vs service company vs a driller vs a marketer.

Eventually they will go back up but the ratio between natural gas and oil should fundamentally be within a certain range. So nat gas prices could trade a lot higher and therefore oil prices could go up with them. Ultimately empirical data shows us there is a very strong correlation to oil...

I was referencing the time this website has been in existence.

No, I think it's the ignorance of the people on this board. I have 18 years of empirical data to prove it.

The oil to gas ratio has been the norm for 50 years to interpolate value when compared in units of heat rates. And by that comparison oil is "obscenely" overvalued. No conspiracies are really needed at this time...

Who are these straight line people? Are they related to the Jehovah's Witness's?

God the ignorance on this board is second to none. A large majority of hedge funds are not in the buy and hold "blue chip" space. WTF would I pay someone 2/20 to buy and hold blue chips when I can simply buy an ETF for that? Hedge funds perform in niche spaces because there is a demand for...

The dollar is going through a major breakout that could last for years. This means just on the Dollar alone Oil could get cut in half again from these levels. Shale is more expensive but there is so much heavy crude in South America and Mexico trading at $20 discounts to WTI to meet demand...

Peso....roman candle!

A lot has changed. The US Dollar has rallied the hardest since the 1960's. Coincidentally, that was when OPEC formed. The Saudi's are no longer the marginal supplier. The US Gulf is now. Also, the cost to produce a barrel of oil has dropped substantially the last few years.

Another ET thread gone to shit. I can't believe politics has to contaminate every ET thread. Oil is very over priced even at these levels. In a competitive market, which oil is now in, oil should trade at marginal cost. That's between $30 and $45 a barrel. It has a long way to fall...

Just one pair. It's a spread trade. You are matching the strongest currency against the weakest.

http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/09/kyle-bass-japan-debt-crisis-herbalife/ A few months old but the Yen trade played out perfectly for him.