Search results

Some general commentary on the market: All my indices have re-set and ES and YM are confirmed negative. Bonds are still negative but close to re-setting. The Yen crosses are weakening Nikkei is holding up well. WTI confirmed but the 5 is -2 (remember what that means) Natty in chop mode. Dollar...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2014/10/09/hedge-fund-billionaire-john-paulsons-comeback-crashes-in-september/ Here is what happens when you try to pick the winners.

No. Ackman was getting killed for a while. Some of his shorts almost bankrupted his fund. Had you tried to cherry pick some of his trades, there is some probability you would have been short one of his stocks that doubled in his face. It was only because he had a few big winners that...

No, you DON'T know that for sure. That is hindsight bias. I also know who won last year's Super Bowl. I have no idea who will win next year's. James Simon had a commodity fund that blew out before he launched Renaissance. Which actually made it difficult for him early to get investors...

Surf, where do you live in West Palm Beach?

Robert, Monday for the ES I had a -3.

StarDust, I've told this story many times on here. When I traded at Worldco back in the day, I use to help struggling traders. One of the ways we did this is we moved the guy right next to you so he could watch you trade. Well this one guy was really really struggling and I got frustrated...

Around Wednesday.

Surf, is PTJ going to attend one of your meetups? You meet Doug Kass yet?

Long term I believe the moves in the Yen complex will be unbelievable. Short term as long as the number lines stay confirmed, I expect more upside follow through.

The Nikkei is really acting well. Holding near it's 20 year highs.

Let me further add here that a crash in stock prices in China is BULLISH, not bearish for China. Speculation bubbles do their primary damage not by the losses they ultimately create but rather by the misallocation of resources. Labor is one of the most important variables to any economy. And...

OK, I think you are confusing the different types of number lines. So the longest one or the macro one if you want to look at it that way, is the 30 day. The 30 day shapes our bias, our potential for the trade and our focus. The monthly number line re-sets every month. But the main...

So regarding number lines. Many people here are confusing number lines with a trade signal. Number lines do NOT give trade signals. For starters, let's break down what we are actually looking at. A 30 day number line is a composite look at the previous 30 trading days. That's 6 weeks of...

RBOB/HO closes at the highs on the week.

I also think there is some misconceptions about China that people are missing. China's gov't is actually very smart. Let me offer a theory inside their mind. China is going through massive growth. This growth really can't be stopped because it's not based on stock prices but population...

I'm going to have to spend some more time on number lines. I still think there is a lot of confusion on how to properly use them.

ES confirmed for me as well. I tend to discount it a little until all the indices confirm. The Dow also confirmed for me. In my humble opinion the small stocks should lead on the way down if we are really going to see some follow through. So watch that Russel like a hawk.

They have options too. I can adjust the yang better that way. :D

I have no position in it. I'm waiting for an FU puke to get long. The market is waiting for me to get in before it pukes. It's a stalemate! :)