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2nd derivative buy signal back on the 4th. Has not done that in close to a year. Keep an eye on it.

Anyone watching AUD/USD? ZAR/JPY?

A lot of miners actually hedge their gold forward so ironically, on really big extended moves, they can actually get hurt pretty bad with higher prices. Many of them over hedge.

Very little correlation actually.

I'm not arguing semantics I'm saying spotting them is pointless since the assumption should ALWAYS be that it's a false breakout. That is why there a multi-billion dollar industry that uses this statistical understanding to trade otherwise known as mean reversion or HFT trading. It's the...

There is no such thing as a false breakout. If you look at the data, and there is a lot of it, probably close to 95% of moves that appear to be breakouts "fail" as you call it because that is actually "normal" behavior. It's an actual breakout that is the outlier. A more appropriate...

You need to work on your math skills. A 10% roll with 3x leverage is 30% a month. Let's start with 100. Let's assume the spot price never changes over that 3 month period. At the end one month you are down to 70. At the end of month two, you are at 49. At the end of month 3 you are at...

I think oil could run just because the shorts probably are going to be stubborn about covering being that there is no "fundamental" reason to do so. I think we could get to 45.

If any of you are wondering, WTI confirmed 3 days ago. Also about to confirm monthly A up.

Tommo, I think it comes down to this. All risk offers some economic benefit and payoff to those willing to accept it. That's why markets exist in the first place. There is no shortage of risk out there today vs 20 years ago. So it all comes down to in the end, those who can price and value...

In case you are wondering, SDRL confirmed right BEFORE that spike.

Anyone see SDRL today? Yeah there is some undeniable strength in this market. Copper and Gold are confirmed. In the currency land there are some massive breakouts from solid bases. I would not want to be fading this rally.

HG

I think you need to be careful with data like this. As you increase the time, you increase the noise factor in the data. That's one of the things that makes ACD so effective is the granular analysis at the daily level that gets extrapolated to larger time frames. Not the other way around...

All of energy is getting a nice bounce (XLE,XOP)

Yeah vol getting very cheap again. Might have to buy some!

Exactly. You are able to analyze data in previous market cycles and look for common traits. Very eye opening.

That a boy. :)

I think the real pain is going to be time. The storage costs are still very high so even if oil sits in the low 30's for another 12 months, it's going to cost $7 to $10 to store it which is he same thing as oil trading down another 7 to 10 dollars in price. It's all costs at the end of the day.

I don't think this is the final capitulation in oil.