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  1. NoDoji

    IncreaseNow's "Sell/Short" Futures Journal

    Technically, why would you buy oil puts at this point, when it's demonstrating a strong desire to retest previous resistance levels off Thursday's pivot low, leaving behind higher lows and higher highs? Technically, that's a short term uptrend (in a longer term uptrend no less), so why puts now...
  2. NoDoji

    Intraday trading and Percent-Risk Position Sizing

    I disagree. Let's say my trade referenced earlier stopped me out for a $240 loss and price broke through (my stop was at a breakout point) and made a new high 40 ticks away (which it had been doing throughout the day). I'd be down $240 and could then play the same setup with another very tight...
  3. NoDoji

    I Have Not Been Able To Exclude The Possibility Of BLACK MONDAY 04/26

    Shortie, right now there is no reason for the market to sell off. There have been no economic news surprises and as long as earnings continue to beat, continuing job losses are irrelevant. Wall Street runs on corporate earnings growth. Job losses simply mean companies are cutting costs and...
  4. NoDoji

    Intraday trading and Percent-Risk Position Sizing

    I agree with this 100%; my stops are purely technical and learning to time entries well has helped me hold on longer for targets when I'm trading with the trend. Counter-trend, I learned to grab what you can quickly. If price gets away from me before I put on the trade (and that happens a...
  5. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    Yes, my blotter posts Mountain Time, 3 hours before Eastern. I've heard of bar counting strategies and never gave it a single thought. Normally I start watching charts at 5 a.m. my time and so I see price action unfold in real time. Today I left for quite a while and when I returned and...
  6. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    It was just one of those things I noticed right away when I returned to my desk and looked at the chart late in the day. I actually was surprised it worked so predictably a third time. My risk (.06) on the trade was so minor compared to the target zone (.26) that I just had to try it.
  7. NoDoji

    What's Worse: Missing the Move Entirely or Giving All Your Profit Back?

    You place your order and price runs 20 or more ticks without your order getting filled. Then you may feel it's too much risk to chase entry and you wait for a pullback in the trend and it just runs like crazy without you. It does happen. Happens to me at least once a week.
  8. NoDoji

    Intraday trading and Percent-Risk Position Sizing

    Tiny stops cause tiny losses. My trade today had a .06 cent stop and a .26 cent target. So I was risking $240 to potentially make $1040. My stop was at a breakout point. There was no reason whatsoever for a wider stop.
  9. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    No, I couldn't NOT trade for an entire day. I returned a while ago and observed an interesting breakout pattern with a certain number of bars followed by a pullback. I got a wild hair and traded it just to see if it would work again, shorting 85.07, pullback from the 3rd bar up, targeting...
  10. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    Just took the garbage down and it's the nicest day here I've ever seen. My ES closing trade yesterday netted me $1230 and I'm taking the day off, going hiking. Have a great trading day, everyone!
  11. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    c'mon Schiz, let your damn winners run!
  12. NoDoji

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    The market currently has the exact same look and feel it had last earnings season in January when it had made a long run up, hit new highs mid-month, had a pullback to the 20-day MA, kept finding very shallow support with buyers attacking every small dip, then it broke down. This happened in...
  13. NoDoji

    Nflx

    I have to agree with you. Stocks like NFLX, AMZN, SHLD are priced for massive growth going forward, but I don't see any lack of competitors, barriers to entry, or economic backdrop supporting their high valuations.
  14. NoDoji

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    Turned out I was a swinger by a hair. Took off part of position last night @ 1199.50 because I couldn't just poo-poo a 5pt gain, then before I went to sleep, I placed a trailing stop, hit for 1199.50 shortly after midnight. Nice way to start the day :cool: (Boy I woulda been pissed had I left...
  15. NoDoji

    What's Worse: Missing the Move Entirely or Giving All Your Profit Back?

    My RTM (counter-trend) trades really vary. Usually my RTM trades are only 1:2 or sometimes less because I'm looking for a quick scalp. But the other day I had a POT trade with a .10 stop and a .48 target (trailed a .10 stop when price approached target, looking for a bit more and ended up with...
  16. NoDoji

    Intraday trading and Percent-Risk Position Sizing

    Yes, in sim I've been averaging down at extremes (3rd pushes into a strong channel line overshoot) and usually only have 2 entries before the retracement quickly brings on profitability, but you're right the ones where you just put on the the 4th round and you just DON'T want to see it hit that...
  17. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    I've always used a 3-min for stocks, and I have 3-min charts of ES and CL up for cross-reference. The 5-min chart filters out the 3-min chart noise, but sometimes the noise is informative to me and I get an early entry on the trade. That can work against you as well!
  18. NoDoji

    Intraday trading and Percent-Risk Position Sizing

    The $500 is approx .8% of my account per trade, but keep in mind this is a max loss scenario, which I might only use if I wanted to chase an entry and didn't want to risk getting shaken out. For the most part, I'm risking $250-$375 on ES trades, and $100-$200 on CL trades. I'm trying to get...
  19. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    I use a 5-min chart with a 20 EMA and the 1.0 Keltners. I've been using the Keltners to gauge the momentum behind a trend and to set profit targets (at channel line overshoots), but I found that targeting the next S/R level expected to be tested in the trend works almost to the tick with CL and...
  20. NoDoji

    Intraday trading and Percent-Risk Position Sizing

    I have a max risk per trade and a max loss per day. When trading stocks, it's rare that I risk more than .2% on a trade, really rare. But now that I'm trading ES in larger size and also trading CL, I had to get my head around a larger risk % per trade and per day. I was focusing too much...
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