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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Good point on the Swiss 2y. There is really no reason why German 2y rates can't go bellow much lower than that. The 0% floor is only an illusion in this type of situation
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I remember the idiot would come here post about a down day here on TLT and there and claim longs would get smashed. Same thing on GMCR and NLFX, then when it turned he was a goner. So far my best trade of 2012 has been putting his retard on ignore
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    Tender offer CVI; risk free profit?

    I've sold my shares for now. I expected Icahn to buy big the stock last week, he didn't buy it. I was thinking about this a while ago and I realized why the tiny 650K purchase he made last week After the tender he owned a tiny bit over 80%, through stock options and stock based compensation...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Haven't heard much from the bond bears lately(Oh, I got ralph on ignore, maybe thats why)
  5. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Chris Adams ‏@ChrisAdamsMKTS "Days to bailout with bond spreads over Germany at 500bp plus: Greece 16 days, Ireland 24 days, Portugal 34 days... Spain (3 days so far)"
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    Tender offer CVI; risk free profit?

    Do you know how quickly the insider has to inform the SEC of their transactions?
  7. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    "More than half, or 52.4 percent, said they should stay in the euro if they were forced to accept the current austerity measures accompanying the bailout while 44.5 percent said they shouldn’t."...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    you mean how low negative yields can go?I'm not sure, probably pretty darn low. This is an unique situation due the redenomination risk. Usually people won't buy bonds at negative yields because you can just keep cash in the mattress. With redenomination risk the game changes
  9. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    In my view the panic have only began. Tons of solutions to EU problems require high levels of panic to get politicians to move, so I don't want to be short a safe haven. Also I wouldn't expect 2y ggb to decline much on eurobonds, the ECB will be at 1% or lower for a long-time. 30y could be...
  10. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    New Democracy would get between 25.6 percent and 27.7 percent of the vote if the election was held today, according to the polls by Eleftheros Typos/Pulse, Proto Thema/Alco, Real News/MRB, To Vima/Kapa and Ethnos/MARC. SYRIZA's support was between 20.1 and 26 percent...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    "Athens News ‏@AthensNewsEU Antonis Samaras, ND leader, promises no new taxes and no further cuts in wages and pensions #SEF" wtf, desperation. This guy is promising all, bailouts, no austerity, good relations with Germany, euro
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    Tender offer CVI; risk free profit?

    Been reading on Icahn and seeing how he is behaving on CHK seems quite likely that he would not force a cashout of CVI at less than $30 as it would hurt his reputation. If he were to take control of 90% then force a short-form merger at less than $30 he would have this taint in his record of not...
  13. D

    IB Auto-Liquidation (Hypothetical Senerio)

    IB system can be nuts sometimes. I have a number of OTM puts that are all almost worthless according to IB's models
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    Tender offer CVI; risk free profit?

    I'm holding this for about 1 month or so. Definitively not a daytrade for me
  15. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Rumor that CHF deposits to be taxed. pair at 1.204x, question is, should I take profits. I'm thinking no, market might realize they are serious about the whole weak franc policy thing
  16. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/two-year-german-bond-yield-may-go-negative-2012-05-24?siteid=bnbh Lower safe haven real yields in Europe just makes the US look more attractive in a relative basis. Thus encouraging flows into USD instead of EUR
  17. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    A Grexit so far has been painted as everything from not a challenge to armageddon by the authorities. Its no wonder people are confused
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/23/1012581/capital-is-leaving-europe/ "Perhaps more interestingly, the main reason behind the negative overall portfolio flows was the activity of eurozone investors, who bought €60bn of foreign assets, mainly bonds and money market instruments. This...
  19. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    get ready to be called by him on the market value of soggy toilet paper being possibly be higher than a euro note in some circumstances or something like that, lol
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