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I agree. Its tough for me because I try to balance the idea of good compounded returns and enjoyment of life. I don't like the idea of giving up the extra profits (on top of the vacation cost) because I know this will hurt the compounded returns. But at the same time, whats the point of saving...

http://www.benzinga.com/news/15/12/6073337/kalobios-to-trade-on-grey-markets Grey markets, a lot worse than thought. There will be almost no liquidity, prob collapses a ton. Will wait and see this one

When you short the futures you will 'pay' the dividends due the way the futures market is priced

At mid single digits it will be like owning an call option on a lot of things, good trial news, ok news that lead to squeezes, random run-ups of former runner stocks, someone pumping on SA to screw the shorts etc. And the cash per share limits the downside for like 1 year or so

Looks like they will get delisted http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-23/devastated-short-who-launched-online-begging-campaign-fund-margin-call-was-right-kal It will probably collapse. Thing is, at bellow $7 a share, I belive the stock is a buy. I say this even though I hated it at $2 and...

PBR warns its own investors that they are not guaranteed by the Gov http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/the-boys-from-the-bank-of-brazil-race-petrobras-debt-clock Its hard to argue in court that the haircut is unfair when the company warned people about the very reason they are...

Some people are going further out and even buying Petrobras USD bonds, at 11%. They reason that if the sovereign debt is a buy, then the state companies with implicit guarantees are also a buy. There is even a good macro manager with a strong record in Brazil, long these things. I have my...

I realize that austerity would hurt the economy and maybe you don't get a 1-1 effect in the deficit decrease but Greece proves that austerity does 'work'. It only doesn't work if you are looking at the wrong variable. So maybe they need to ajust 2.5% instead of 2, or 3%. Well, whatever it is...

The Brazilian total deficit (around 9% of GDP) can be solved by two things: -2% is central bank intervention in FX through swaps. The losses show up on the deficit figures. They can stop that overnight -Another 2% is fiscal austerity that they need to do Once they done that, the deficit is...

https://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do;jsessionid=A0F809BF24275C33BFCDE3259CE9D2E7?SERIES_KEY=325.GFS.A.N.GR.W0.S13.S1._Z.B.B9P._Z._Z._Z.XDC_R_B1GQ._Z.S.V.N._T

Heck, if Greece can turn a big deficit into a primary surplus in the middle of a 5y depression, then anyone can. Its just a matter of passing things in congress

Most of the brazil media frenzy is only happening because the political crisis makes it seem like the country is in some kind of big trouble. If the political crisis were to be solved, a lot of the problems would go away quickly because the country is still quite solvent (with net debt at 34% of...

Same thing can be done from the bond side. If I had to invest OPM in bonds, I'd be in a similar allocation as the Barclays index but with ocasional shots at things I believe are just incorrectly priced. Right now that would be Brazilian USD bonds at 7% I really think these bonds are getting...

The strategy summarizied is: Be in the index you are benchmarked against with the vast majority of your money. Take out parts of the funds when you see something is screaming at you of how undervalued it is and then get in. Limit exposures to 5% or 10% (and for 10%, stocks like VRX don't apply...

So, seeking alpha offered me 30 days of SA Pro free if I wrote another article for them in 30 days. I wanted to test drive their service so I decided I'm going to do that. I should write it soon, maybe tomorrow after the early close (which to me, are the greatest thing ever invented). I'm Aqua...

Something to keep in mind "Since 1960, the S&P 500 has had no fewer than 13 non-recessionary corrections of at least 10%. The median length of these corrective phases is 101 days (the average is 144) and the median decline is 14.4% (average is -16.1%)"...

Also, I might swing short SPY next week if markets put some kind of bounce that starts to fizzle out

The way I'm going to play this is to aggressively short BRKB puts, potentially add to PSH/EWZ positions when the ES is in the lower end of the range (anywhere between SPX 1990-1930) and sell exposures when markets come back up to 2050+

So stocks collapsed in August and September and that lead the Fed to not hike, then they rose a lot and that lead the Fed to hike rates. With the Fed forecasts the way they are, essentially, the Fed is saying, "we are going to hike at every ES pop". It was a nobrainer to sell stocks into this...

Rosenberg had an article with similar thoughts to mine (Fed forecasts can lead to a market rout) http://business.financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-feds-rate-hike-not-all-that-dovish Now, I wish didn't got faked out by the FOMC rally. I tried some shorts that day but it didn't work...