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The do go down when rates rise but if you keep durations low (say 5 years) its every hard to lose money because for any given year that you lose money, the next year, the implied reates will be higher and hence the chance of a losing year declines. If you lose 2 years in a row, the chance of...

https://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/profit-margins-dont-matter/

Very good piece here https://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com/2014/06/08/sixpercent/

A non-US company formed for daytrading and investing purposes of a single non-US shareholder is consdeired a FFI or a NFFE according to FATCA?

Kyle Bass short Yuan thesis http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/02/kyle-bass-china/?all=1

The whole rally after the ISM services missed (from 187 to 192 on SPY) was just a short squeeze. Everybody got short and got squeezed out when the dollar index started to breakdown (boosting XLE, XLB and XLF due the banks exposure to energy). I had a nice short at a very good entry price, but...

With regards to the markets now. I'm just waiting for a good situation to add to BRKB. I sold the SPY calls and that has helped a bit to cushion the downside but only a bit. I made a big mistake last week. I was trying to short SPY but I kept getting shaken out of the trade. What I should have...

I was thinking about something the other day. Dalio recommends people to invest 30% in stocks with 55% in bonds and 15% commodities. But that stock/bond portion, isn't that pretty much equivalent as being in IG bonds? stocks and gov bonds blended together (high and no risk) are a low risk...

The iluminatti

But this 'negative rates premium' doesn't seem to be justified. They didn't do it even in 2009 when things were far worse. Why would they do it now? A rate cut and QE would be their main tools as usual

Jan 2017 Fed futures trading at 99.475 x 99.48 chance of one hike by then 40% I think the market is seriously flirting with the chance of negative rates if things get worse. if rates go negative fed futures will go above par (100). thats what this implied probabilities seem to be missing. I...

That said, I'm not taking the chance in bonds

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-04/goldman-sachs-with-pimco-warn-bond-gains-will-turn-into-losses Hatzius says 10y bond will plunge, markets underestimating Fed's willingness to hike. He decreased his forecast to 3 hikes this year I'm not sure he is right. The problem is the cat...

I think I have seen more paper profits evaporate on SPY that any instrument I ever traded

I didn't want to fight SPY so I covered when I started to lose money. Oil is likely to continue and the dollar index turning might fuel the market (might boost some revenues, etc). Draghi will speak tomorrow too. I swear to god, if I took profits 100% of the time I'm was up 1-2 dollars on SPY...

What is the cost of carry that you are paying on this trade?

I went flat on BRKB (except for the puts). PSH has China devaluation bets and I got SPY short with a small alocation to bonds. I think im resonable protected against a continued market puking

I got some short SPY cut back on my brkb. this market is looking pretty bad

Its not about just the stock market, the Fed hiked rates and promised another 8 hikes or so over 2 years. Then what happened? Interest rates WENT DOWN, look at bond yields.

I don't have a lot of confidence, though, that the decline has to happen now. Maybe it happens 1 month from now, maybe 3 months. Thats the hard part, if you are short in decent size for that long, its VERY hard not to find a reason to close the short during that period