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I have been long and wrong but damn, look at my email I sent to bill ackman in November.I guess at least I was right about this " Bill, As you can see VRX continues to struggle, I was on the camp that thought this was all a panic a while back but this no longer looks like its the case. The...

I think, it looks to me that one or two of the big holders decided to bail so they just smacked everything. Hard to know though.

I have been short stocks that were 'on the verge of bk', creditors waive covenants all the time. they do not have a 10-k so they simply can't know what they would get out of bk. they will waive, company will do asset sales and prob fire CEO

I expect Ackman's rep on the board to be pushing for Pearson's outage and asset sales today. His PR seems to confirm that

The margin call rumor is nonsense. If VRX goes to $0, Ackman loses 4% in the options trade. The margin required in this trade is minimal. His MDLZ position is likely more than what the prime broker need

I will waiting for your 'wow' post if VRX rallies back above $69 over the next month

Apperently Obama extended some tax breaks http://www.klgates.com/permanent-us-withholding-tax-rules-for-non-us-investors-in-rics--a-new-distribution-opportunity-01-12-2016/ It all comes down to whether the fund is considered an RIC, I guess

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Also, even by the Damoradan's take, the stock is a buy now. But more importantly, if you plug different assumptions in his model, the final valuation comes at a drasticly different price. Why give more credence to his DCF assumptions given that he makes his living selling books and giving...

Damodaran made numerous mistakes in his analysis which reflected his lack of due diligence

Well, you left out what was the reward for taking on that volatility. And the reward was an very strong excess return over the S&P500. He is in the Buffett school of "I rather make a bumpy 15% than a smooth 12%". Buffett himself has had numerous 50% drawdowns in his lifetime, yet he is one of...

And the reasons I like to invest in the fund instead of buying his holdings is 1- Sometimes he does special transactions that you only fully benefit by being in the fund. The whole Alergan thing was a good example. It was a home run trade (and contrary to the critics, it was legal. It was...

MDLZ, CP, HHC, ZTS, APD,QSR(burger king) are companies with real business. No matter how much people hate on Ackman, that won't change. Yes, VRX is higher risk, thats why I shorted some to get the exposure down. But, its high reward too, if he is right, the stock is worth $200

If Ackman is right that his porfolio is as undervalued as it was in 2009 (And I believe that is likely), his performance is likely to produce over 2000 basis points in excess returns over the S&P500 over the next few years, thats 20% a year in a flat market. Its the combination of the fact that...

Here is why http://seekingalpha.com/article/3803136-pershing-square-holdings-unique-high-return-opportunity-investors

Typically 80% of your profits come from 20% of your trades. You just got to figure out which setups/situations are in the 20% bucket and bet more on that. Bet less or not at all in the other trades

One of the best bond trades ever http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/03/03/how-elliott-earned-billions-on-argentine-bonds-at-101-interest/

The risk is that the fraud is a lot bigger than what was disclosed

the bond is illiquid the compány has not filled financials for a long-time,makes me think the bond would be mispriced as the funds dont want to get involved in something like this

My thesis there is that BK would be actually good for the bond (chap 11 that is) because you get the new delevered equity with new management and without the accounting costs (which now are high due problems in the past, they eat a lot of their cashflows now). if they solve their problems and...