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Hi, thanks for the feedback. I did ended up making the site http://macrospeculations.blogspot.com.br/ I haven't updated in years and I probably wouldn't stand behind some of the analsys I put in there. I learned a lot over the years and back then I was still developing some of my ideas and how...

In fact, I should probably have bought more (I didn't max out my suggested 20% allocation). I'm around 15% at this point

Its only on twitter and in the world of the media that VRX has a 100% chance bk along with Bill Ackman and every stock he owns. In the real world, its a matter of probabilities. If the bull VRX scenario plays out, the payoff will be multiples of its price. It if doesn't, then it goes to $0 but I...

PSH annual report "While PSH’s discount to NAV has remained relatively narrow during most of 2015 and early 2016 – typically less than 5% – in recent weeks, the discount has widened substantially and has averaged about 13% since March 1, 2016. I suspect that this is largely due to fear about the...

Well, Gotham Partners (contrary to what the media says) was a success. I wrote about that in the article I posted earlier. 20% compound returns all the way to the last year where it was liquidated at a ~25% loss, according to my math thats 14.5% compounded returns. If you got out of that and...

Yes, to my VRX suggestions he said I was free to short it if I didn't like it. To my questions for the calls he took all of them in the VRX call marathon

Well, I never said 100% accurate. but it does make one more accurate than not. All good stock pickers will have bad picks but he has had a pretty good battling avg over the years Also, let me ask you this, can someone be a 'terrible investor' and still be on the all-time money earned to clients...

I know you are not a fan of Ackman but I believe he does a good job at due diligence and he has a good investing method. I wish he was a better risk manager (another reason to 'fix' things with hedges, sending him emails. In fact, blasted 6-7 emails for the next PSH conf call) He has an...

About VRX There are 4-5 guys who are good/decent value managers who met with Pearson who thinks he is a good manager and his non-GAAP guidence is legit. Hempton, never met with him and says it is not. So far the debate has not settled because it will take years to see if the cashflows from the...

Well, technically you are right but the bottom line is that D day is like 40 days away and that's what I mean. Its actually further than that because VRX has 1.2B in cash and 1.4B in revolver debt, they could pay off that just with an asset sale and only have to deal with bond holders. Then D...

STL FED'S BULLARD: PRUDENT POLICY WOULD BE TO EDGE UP RATES the correlation between his opinion on rates and the S&P500 is as close to 1 as it gets

I'd love to be able to jump in the bear side in the 'sure ride to $0' but they have to file the 10-K by April 29th to be in a event of default, more than a month and a half away. That assuming the banks don't amend the agreement, which is quite likely. This is a sample size of 1 but it...

A lot of the lower than expected sales across different drugs had to do with inventory drawdows among some of the buyers, as a long doctors continue to prescribe stuff, this will be a temporary effect

Given the way I structured, a 15% PSH position (with 18% of the fund being VRX) translates into 2.7% position(more like 3% due the bonds PSH owe, debt leverage). With the hedge, its more like 1.5%. If I'm wrong, I lose that. Not that big of a deal. Its not like I'm getting killed like the other...

They are probably worth a decent amount, they need to sell parts of this stuff to build a better balance sheet fast. Mike Pearson is clearly delusional if he thinks he can sell non-core assets and keep the company alive with non-gaap guidance promises

What is the increase in the implied default probability? certainly seems less than the impression you would get by looking at the stock

The bonds seemed to be down anywhere from -3% to -13%. Most were down 7% or less. So yeah, this looks like capitulation or forced selling by some of the big funds on the stock side. You would expect the bonds to be down more on real bk risk

Another reason why I will stick with this is that if I can keep my head clear on this situation while everybody is going nuts, then, in the future I'm likely to be rewarded in other plays that I will buy/hold while everybody is dumping cheaply. There is no contrarian play more than VRX right...

Its not a fun ride but the way I structured and suggested investment ought to be made (10-20% of investable assets on PSH with a VRX hedge to get exposure down) limits the volatility a fair amount. Part of the thesis was that the discounts in the other stocks fair value were going to be...

Had they raised that equity at $75 with the asset sales, they would be fine now with a mountain to cash and less debt. I'm not selling though, because essentially they will go down that route now. At least that's my speculation after the ackman PR. he's got a board member now, he didn't in...