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    Nassim Taleb/Empirica Results

    Anyone know more about this?
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Anyone invested in Singapore stocks? 12 PE and 1.1 price to book
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    As a matter of fact, its like owning a cheap call option on the ECB dovishness. Of course, they aren't going to go very dovish anytime soon (as their lunacy doesnt seem to end) but at the same time, no one expected Abenomics, and look at what that did to Japanese stocks. If one day there is ever...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    There is some prescedent for a 'immaculate' recovery for Greece. On Bernanke's book (not the recent one but the Essays one), he has a lot of data of countries in and out of the gold standard in the 30's. He shows that leaving the gold standard boosted wholesale prices and industrial output...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Bought a 1.8% position on GREK, will exit if it breaks lows on a closing basis. Unless its there because there are rumours of a EU exit, in that case I will just wait and hope they actually do it
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-20/el-erian-says-december-fed-hike-likely-but-not-a-done-deal El-Erian is 30% in cash
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    It could be. But employment started to go up, real GDP is flat and there is a primary surplus. It looks like the worst is over. So it SHOULD limit the downside, if GREK makes a new low, I can get probably get out. If there is a comeback, this make will triple easily. So its a big reward to risk...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Even with a small position, the potential is huge. When these depressions end the rallies are just humungous, it takes everyone by surprise
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Greece CAPE ratio is around 2-4. I avoided Greece for years because of EUR denomination risk (in case they get out of the EUR), but its getting so ridiculously low it might be worth a initial investment (with the plan to add a lot more if they get out). If you think about it, if they walk out...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    With central banks forcing certain country's stock markets to trade at a premium, you have to diversify globally to find value
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The higher the valuation (the lower the expected real return going forward), the higher the chance of a significant drawdown in the stock market http://mebfaber.com/2012/11/30/hercules-hercules/ Kinda obvious but its nice to see that data to back it all up
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Brazilian stocks are up a ton this year (new multi-year high today highest since april 2012) but I still think they are very cheap. Where in the world can you own stocks with a 10 CAPE ratio with a government implementing all the important reforms and with a even better government likely to take...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-17/fed-hike-or-not-barclays-says-european-stocks-are-a-buy-in-2016 A lot of people love European equities due the low PE, but couldnt the market be there because expected growth rates (due stagnation) be very low right now?
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    IB and IEX Discretionary Pegs

    good to know
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    IB and IEX Discretionary Pegs

    I just added a comment and vote for the feature request pool, asking for IB to implement this. From what I have read these IEX d-pegs are an interesting addition to a trader's arsenal. Now, I dont necessarily think they are super useful, mainly because (as I understand), this is essentially with...
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    Which markets are cheap right now in the world?

    what are some stock/bond/commodity/currencies that are very cheap right now?
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Key about these hedges is that they must have (at worse) small negative expectation as a % of the likely annual return. So if I'm likely to earn 6% a year. I dont want to risk more than 1 to 1.5% of that in my hedging. Otherwise it becomes difficult to keep doing, then you throw the towel at the...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I learned the hard way, its very difficult to time in and out of the market in a multi-week multi-month basis. Its very certain way to underform. So if I sell all my positions because I'm worried about something, I will be selling an aweful lot of the time. Only to buy back in, transaction costs...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Anyone who is bearish in these bonds, surely would think a US bond fund with a duration of 20+ is being managed by a lunatic. But somehow they are comfortable with stocks, which (as I understand and seen some studies showing) have a duration that is even bigger than that (40 IIRC). That lunatic...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The alternative is to sell stocks and hope for a correction to get back in. I think that is even riskier, because we dont know when rates will rise. Maybe it will came in the future, from ES 2800 down to 2300. But if a roll of short bund futures can be kept with a decently small yearly cost...
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