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Not in my book. To be a cycle it has to have "regularity" that you can identify. Sectors will be strong or weak depending upon conditions in their industry or other... that and trading in/out of a sector to take advantage of overbought/oversold.

Suggest learning "Price TA". Everything will become less scary.

Didn't say I was tuning you out... just your comments on cycles.

IMV... any kind of "cycle" analysis is among the least reliable. Years ago when Steve Shellins ran the MoniResearch Newsletter, he commented... "those who claim cycle analysis as their primary methodology are the worst performers". (His service tracked ~225 money managers.) Which performers...

1. Disagree about trade. Trump not getting anything substantial, period. 2. If the bull market explodes to the upside, it will be due to "overbelief" in the Fed. If/when that occurs and is priced into the market, "look out below".

You can't "only take winning trades"... but you can learn to take trades with better probability of success and you can limit your losses through discipline. In poker if you try to "play only winning hands"... that is you only play when you have a big hand (sometimes referred to as a...

Or is it, "I should double-up"?

No. The American voter is not smart enough to elect a Rand Paul. (And of course the illegals won't vote for Paul 'cause they never heard of him.)

One year a friend gave me a book about "pool legends". Fun read 'cause I knew almost every name. Pool players have lots of stories, of course.... one was about a poker game that got crashed and robbed. While the robbers were collecting everybody's money, jewelry, wallets, etc... one of the...

You're on the right track, sort of. You can have an edge over other players by being informed, smart, and disciplined. But that's the same as having and edge over the market. Bottom line... there is no edge over the market for you that is legal. Don't waste your time with considerations of...

CORRECTAMUNDO! Canceling debt means "somebody takes it in the shorts". Debt ALWAYS gets accounted for... by somebody.

Not only that, we're already running deficits. Also talk of cutting "payroll tax". That probably not good either. They're already telling us that SS is to run out of money in 5-10 years. That would suggest a payroll tax HIKE as more likely. Trumps trying to pull out all the stops to goose...

Would be on trades you've closed out. You can't realistically estimate your P/L because you don't know when you are going to close out profitable trades (by year-end? Next year?). Of course if you're going to close out losers before year-end to offset gains, you should include those losses in...

You're supposed to make a good estimate of the tax you will owe. Payments are quarterly. Just mail in the 1040-ES with your check.

Well, EXCUUUUUUUSE me!

At some point, I gave it some thought. The best bowlers I knew had no money. Those who did owned bowing centers. Wasn't likely I was going to do that, so I had to shift gears. (Starting from ground zero, I had to borrow money to eat before my first pay check... and that wasn't even the 1st...

No. The most important dynamics of poker are about intimidating opposing players to making a mistake. That is, "betting in position" and/or intimidating with your big stack if you've got it. That is.... you try to bluff opponents off of a winning hand or suck them into calling/raising when...

The order book is only "tic by tic trade". There are bigger and more important considerations.

Well of course. Unfortunately the dynamics of poker are not about that.

There have been a few stories about fund managers hiring poker players to potentially juice their investment results. So far, haven't heard of any success from that effort. No surprise to me, as I view champion poker players having ZERO skills to transfer to markets trading. Some people like...