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  1. V

    Questions How to Get Started Trading with Probabilities

    @nodoji: An excellent sample size if the underlying distribution is normal or can be approximated as normal. However i read recently Bill Eckhardt saying you need around 1800 as a sample size due to the underlying distribution of market prices being a fat tail type of distribution. He's...
  2. V

    200% Return by March 31 buying NKD

    With NKD i keep doing this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU :D
  3. V

    Questions How to Get Started Trading with Probabilities

    What's your typical sample size, NoDoji?
  4. V

    Questions How to Get Started Trading with Probabilities

    Hilarious, made me chuckle. I suppose v advanced degrees in maths and stats might be useful for OTC derivatives or HFT, but for trading vanilla equities, bonds, futures and options? Nah.
  5. V

    Questions How to Get Started Trading with Probabilities

    If there is no volatility, or volatility decreases too much, don't trade that market. Find another market that meets your requirements and trade that.
  6. V

    Russian Tycoon bets on Immortality

    You forgot slow trading. :D Actually, there's not much point trading if you are gonna live for hundreds of years. Just stick it all in index fund, compounding will do the rest.
  7. V

    Wow. EU steals 10% of bank deposits in exchange for bailout

    There are rumours that Gazprom have proposed they shore up the entire banking system in exchange for full rights to develop gas and oil fields in Cyprus. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100564095
  8. V

    CL Redux

    The major low this year was 1442 in January ( Feb basis), went to over 2300 in Feb (March basis), and now back to near the major low. If that's taken out, which i expect, could see the spread far lower, maybe even close to zero(!!!) some time this year. Well worth investigating bearing in...
  9. V

    CL Redux

    Brent/wti spread goes to new lows, 1475 :D Was at 1600 yesterday
  10. V

    Wow. EU steals 10% of bank deposits in exchange for bailout

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21820237 Good to see my taxes being put to good use :mad:
  11. V

    wh$$ is going on with this market!? can't take it anymore!! help!

    Buy when it is going up, sell when it is going down. :D Btw Japanese equities look cheap, go long Nikkei futures.
  12. V

    CL Redux

    Don't understand that, you do both the legs at the same time, so no need to "leg in". Market orders during a quiet time.
  13. V

    CL Redux

    https://www.theice.com/productguide/ProductSpec.shtml;jsessionid=AB54273226B2BB78FBA60508AF9C631C?specId=1242
  14. V

    CL Redux

    You can easily create the position yourself by selling 1 contract of brent and simultaneously buying 1 nymex. You can create the chart on IB by using their create synthetic security chart (it's the third tab on the chart function). edit: i go with various spreadbetters in the UK who have this...
  15. V

    CL Redux

    I exited the wti/brent spread yesterday, but am thinking of shorting again. Couple of hundred points to support if looking at a chart. May even smash past that. Well worth looking at .
  16. V

    CL Redux

    I was, but unfortunately not in any size.
  17. V

    CL Redux

    Spread is around 1600 :eek: That's a collapse from 2100 on Thursday or Friday last week. It's due to Brent going down and NYMEX going up. Rollover to May now.
  18. V

    CL Redux

    short 9120
  19. V

    CL Redux

    the spread went down primarily due to brent plunging... CL could follow ... ultimately i can see $85ish for cl
  20. V

    ES Journal - 2013

    out 48.25
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