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The answer to your question is YES - coming up with a system that does 1% a day on paper is not only possible, it's really quite trivial. There are literally thousands of equivalent ways of doing it - on paper. The vast majority of those approaches fall under the general class of "fading". Or...

Conversely, another example of a "baseless assertion" would be the statement that Taleb doesn't make s**tloads of money.

That "closed LLC" returned more funds to its investors than it took in - and that's after *keeping* the largest client. Taleb has done very very well, and the investors who had their money returned to them immediately went out recruiting wing traders.

That isn't one of Taleb's assumptions. For starters, the bulk of his trading is not in vanilla equity options. He looks for situations where things can go non-linear in a hurry, currency and income markets being a prime playground.

He makes a sh*tload of money. After the bubble bust, his next big score was being long crude volty, he was carrying tons of upside exposure. That turned out...tolerably well. ;) And in the article he never stated he was buying 10 sigma puts - 3rd grade reading skills are enough to see the...

Hey 'Arb - did you know your neck of the woods has all judgements online and searchable? You've got nowhere left to hide, mate. I see you're on to exotics now. This should be fun. After watching you lose your ass shorting the piss out of GOOG and Crude volty, I can't wait to see how you screw...

Speaking of ugly - you cleaned up those judgements against you yet? Not nice to be hocking workstations on usenet out the back door while your creditors are pounding on your front door....

'97 wasn't his only blowup. Over the course of his career, Niederhoffer has a net return of less than zero. That...is a walking talking definition of "trading badly". The only difference between him and Gekko is better PR.

Quants don't love Taleb. Taleb is the diammetric opposite of what 95% of Quants do. Or...think they do. Still, you have a point about his prose stylings. They are a bit...self-indulgent. :) Mostly, though, I suspect that comes from having a multilingual background.

Ah, no, that's not what Empirica was doing. Betting on the wings and waiting for lightning to strike is a fair qualitative description, but the strategies are a little more involved than that. His returns were and are very good, far better than Niederhoofer's or those of any of his...

It means (a) there is no correlation between trading frequency and profits for the speculator and (b) there shouldn't be an expectation of there being one.

For the broker - yes. For the speculator - they are orthogonal issues.

You're welcome. What else can I say? I never said the things you are arguing against. Specifically, I certainly never, ever suggested someone not continue to improve themselves or acquire more knowledge. If you would like to reread and try again, I'll happily have a conversation with you.

Sure. It, too, has nothing to do with my comments.

Sorry, that is a complete non sequitir from any of my comments. I have no idea what you are talking about.

About $29.95. There are a million systems like that.

Markets as we know them have been around for about 500 years, more or less continuously. It takes a pretty acute case of naivete to think you're coming up with something a million traders haven't already seen a billion times.

This cannot be said often enough or loudly enough.

No, it is not true. There are no secrets in the market.

I'm down for a beer. In the West End so virtually anywhere in the core works just fine for me. We really should be taking advantage of this fabulous Outdoor Imbibing weather! :)